We split a pair of props on Thursday’s short night slate. We still have a small profit to start off our first week and before we start all over on Monday’s short slate, Sunday Night Baseball is here and I have another pair of MLB Odds worth exploiting.
Mookie Betts O/U 2½ runs, hits and RBI
Mookie Betts’ numbers are obviously down in his third full season in the major leagues. However, that could be starting to change soon, especially tonight against Daniel Norris. He has a bad habit of giving up home runs so far this season and it looks to be getting worse.
Righties have a .347 wOBA off Norris so far this season across 217 total batters faced and now back at home Betts and the rest of the Red Sox could be ready to mash tonight. If that’s the case, Betts doesn’t really need a home run, he just needs to get base hits and score runs.
That shouldn’t be a problem either. Over his short career, Betts has a .315 average when hitting in Boston and at home, against left-handers, his wOBA jumps to .383. He is averaging 0.66 runs, hits, and RBI over 188 total plate appearances against lefties at Fenway Park in his career, so theoretically if he gets four or five plate appearances tonight, the over should be golden at even money.
With a total of 11 runs tonight, the Tigers and Red Sox southpaw battle could get out of hand in a hurry. I’m expecting both teams to mash, but for our prop’s sake, I hope it’s the Red Sox a little more.
Free MLB Pick: Over 2½ (+100) Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Tigers vs. Red Sox O/U 1½ 1st inning runs
This one is a bit of a long shot, so if you’re more comfortable with the slight to moderate risk, this play may not be for you. However, I am willing to take a stab at it tonight for a couple of reasons.
The first is I think this game could be pretty high scoring. The sportsbooks agree with me and while Boston’s offense has been hot in the series, I think Detroit’s will get back going big tonight.
In the first game of the series, the Tigers got two runs early off of Brian Johnson and with Drew Pomeranz on the hill for the Sox tonight, I think Detroit could jump on them early. The best part is I think the Sox could do the same to Norris as I outline above, and with a run total of 5 ½ that is sure to happen at some point tonight.
At +200 for the over, it would be a killer night for us if we could cash this one and the MLB pick above on Betts.
Neither team is great at scoring in the first inning. Boston ranks 15th while the Tigers are 26th in first inning runs per game. However, Detroit is averaging a run in the first inning over their last three games and Boston has allowed the seventh-most runs in the first inning this season, giving up an average of 0.67 per game.
Free MLB Pick: Over 1½ (+200) Best Line Offered: at Bovada