Free O/U MLB Picks: Fade Public Betting with Wednesday's Top Totals Plays

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 12:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 23, 2015 12:52 PM UTC

Here's our two top totals selections on Wednesday’s card. Don’t make a move on either the Angels/Astros or Rays/Red Sox games without first reading this revealing betting preview.

Angels (Tropeano) vs. Astros (Fiers) 2:10 PM ET
Nick Tropeano has displayed poor form during his previous four starts by posting a sizable 6.86 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.

Michael Fiers has a lofty 4.50 ERA in his last three starts, and allowed an alarming 6 home runs in just 18.0 innings pitched. One of those outings came against the Angels on 9/13, and he surrendered 3 solo home runs in 7.0 innings of work. The Astros have smashed 209 home runs this season which is second to only Toronto in all of baseball. That includes 120 of those long balls coming in 77 games at Minute Maid Park.

These teams have combined to hit 14 home runs in their last four meetings. Even in last night’s 4-3 Angels win, the teams combined for only 13 hits, and 4 of those were home runs. I like this game to surpass the current total of 8.5 for one of my MLB picks today. After shopping all the major sportsbooks for the best number and price, I determined that Pinnacle will receive my action.

MLB Pick: Play the Angels and Astros Over 8.5 (-101).

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Rays (Smyly) vs. Red Sox (Porcello) 7:10 PM ET
Drew Smyly has made four starts versus the Red Sox since 2014 and was extremely efficient in those appearances. During those outings, Smyly posted an excellent 1.52 ERA, a terrific 0.89 WHIP, and none of those four games went over the total. That includes two starts versus Boston this year in which he allowed only 1 earned run in 12.0 innings pitched. According to current MLB betting odds, Tampa Bay is a money line road underdog today, and they’ve gone 28-16 (63.6%) under the total in that exact role this season.

Rick Porcello has gone 3-0 in his team starts versus Tampa Bay in 2015. During those three outings, Porcello has posted a stellar 2.70 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

I’m enticed by the betting value on going under this somewhat high total. One of my MLB picks on Wednesday will be indicative of that sentiment.

MLB Pick: Play the Rays and Red Sox Under 9.0 (-120) at 5Dimes.

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