Free MLB Picks: Will Mets Take Down Giants Again This Saturday?

Doug Upstone

Saturday, April 30, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 30, 2016 12:00 PM UTC

On afternoon action in the cement jungle, it is the middle game between San Francisco and the New York Mets. Will our MLB Pick be a money line or run line play?

Record: 7-4, +2.7 Units

Though the underdog could attract some action, at close to 2-to-1 MLB odds, you better really like something about the starting pitcher to have chance to back this pooch. New York has won 10 of 11, thanks to stellar starting pitching and strong bullpen. After losing five straight the Giants had taken large stride of improvement and won five of six before getting crushed 13-1.


Pitching Matchup - Cain vs. DeGrom
Matt Cain (0-2, 6.43 ERA and 1.67 WHIP) used to be a workhorse, logging 200 or more innings from 2008-12 and bookended those years with 190 2/3 and 184 1/3 innings. With a rather simple delivery, it was just assumed the right-hander was going to be good for those innings into his 30's. However, 2014 was turning point, as elbow issues became more pronounced and a seldom discussed strained flexor tendon sapped even more of his ability. While Cain is not close to the pitcher he used to be at almost any level, he's in the fourth year of making 20 million per year (same number for 2017) and San Francisco can only hope he can be a fair No.5 starter and stay healthy. Opposing teams are hitting .321 against him presently.

There was nothing about Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1,54, 1.11) in the minors that suggested ace stuff. While all his pitches were good, all scouts agreed maybe a No.4 or No.5 starter because of the velocity. However, once arriving in New York and putting on the blue and orange, it was like Clark Kent to Superman. Coaches found a way to up the speed on his pitches and increase the movement. With this newfound confidence, the curve developed more break and the slider began darting late and downward, becoming impossible to hit. Ask San Fran hitters how much fun he is face, having struck out 17 times in 15 1/3 innings and scoring two runs.


Offensive Overlook
After a super start, the Giants offense went chilly and was at least half the reason why they lost eight of nine in the middle of April. San Francisco has emerged from those dark days, thanks the steadiness of Brandon Belt (.304 BA and 16 RBI's) and Hunter Pence (.279 BA and 16 RBI's). Once the catalyst of the team, injuries to Angel Pagan robbed him of speed and hitting skills, but he's proving what he capable of hitting .321 with OBP of .370.

Something weird is going on at second base for the Mets. Last year Daniel Murphy has a career-high for home runs and a magical postseason and newly-acquired Neil Walker is picking up the slack this season with nine dingers in April, with 23 his high-water mark in 2014. Having Yoenis Cespedes will only make the lineup stronger as manager Terry Collins waits for David Wright and Curtis Granderson to find a groove. Michael Conforto (.343) looks very comfortable with whatever he does and SS Asdrubal Cabrera (.312) is playing like it's 2009, when he hit career-high .309.


Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers
GTBets opening number has the Metropolitans as -185 home favorites with total of 7. San Francisco has won five of past eight at Citi Field and the total leans toward the Over at 4-3-1. The Giants bullpen has been ordinary to this point with a 4.06 ERA, yet it is a given skipper Bruce Boche will work his magic and have this fixed before long. New York's bullpen continues to shine with 2.54 ERA and permitted a league-low in homers with two. (As of Friday before the game)


Game Outcome
New York has a franchise-best 12-run fourth inning last night in grinding up the Giants. Chances are they will not score 13 again, but they should knock Cain around, thus for MLB picks I will recommend the Mets on the +125 run line to win this afternoon.

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Free MLB Pick:  Mets -1½ +115
Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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