Free MLB Picks: Tigers Gifted With Extra Run In Tonight's Tilt vs. Red Sox

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, July 26, 2016 3:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 26, 2016 3:14 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper is back with an analysis of the Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox game that points to a huge value play as these teams continue their series at Fenway. 

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
It’s a rare event in which I get to cover multiple games in a single series, as we continue with Detroit’s visit with the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night. Last night I should have followed my initial analysis of the pitching matchup, as both Drew Pomeranz and Justin Verlander were able to limit the damage even in the face of 20 mph winds blowing out to the Green Monster. But I chose Boston against Detroit on short rest, and the Tigers were able to beat the Red Sox’s bullpen late in the game to take the first game of the series 4-2. That result continued the trend of 6 of the last 7 games played between these two teams going under the listed total.

In this game we have Steven Wright going for Boston and Mike Pelfrey taking the mound for Detroit. The Red Sox have opened as heavy favorites in this game with the line sitting as high as -200 at BookMaker. The O/U total has been posted at 11 across the board. With such a heavy favorite in play, the run line is also a decent option here and is coming in at even money with Detroit +1.5 runs.

Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey gets the start for Detroit in this game and he hasn’t had the best results over the season thus far. Actually, Pelfrey hasn’t had a winning season since 2010 with the New York Mets. On the year he has put up a 3-9 record, 4.78 ERA, 47/43 K/BB rate, 1.76 WHIP, and .329 batting average allowed. The extreme ground ball pitcher has been bitten by some bad luck on the year though as his batting average on balls in play sits at .347, well above his career average.

Even though the statistics over the year are not very impressive, Pelfrey has been strong of late and has given up only 1 run or less in 4 of his last 6 starts. Additionally, Pelfrey hasn’t been too bad on the road on the year while putting up a 3.36 ERA and giving up only one home run over 56.1 innings pitched. His career numbers against the Red Sox are excellent as well, posting a 1.71 ERA and only allowing 2 runs over 2 starts last year when he faced them twice within a week in May and June of 2015.  

Steven Wright
Wright has been on quite a run lately for the Red Sox, recording wins in 9 of his last 11 games. On the season he has compiled a 12-5 record, 2.67 ERA, 107/45 K/BB rate, 1.15 WHIP, and .215 batting average against. Wright has been equally tough versus left handers and right handers on the year, although his ERA comes back to earth a bit at home in Fenway where it sits at 3.20. His starts over the last month have been winning efforts in spite of July being the worst month he has pitched on the year. It helps when your offense scores runs in the double digits in your starts it would seem. Wright’s ERA in July comes in at 4.68.

With Pelfrey sitting at a 3.36 ERA on the road and Wright with a 3.20 ERA at home, this matchup should be closer than the moneyline indicates. If anyone has followed me this year, you’ll know that I like when a team is getting a run and a half at almost even money on the run line – like in this game. We are talking about a sport where failing 7 out of 10 times is considered success, after all. Take the extra run in MLB odds and back Detroit at +1.5 +100 at Heritage as one of your Tuesday MLB Picks.


Free MLB Pick: Tigers at +1.5 +100 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 
2016 YTD MLB: 37-22-3, +13.91 Units

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