Free MLB Picks: Take Giants Run Line -1.5 +160 Against Pirates

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, June 22, 2016 2:21 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 22, 2016 2:21 PM UTC

The San Fran Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their early week, 4-game set at PNC Park. Who will be our free MLB pick? Get it inside.

San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates  7:05PM ET
And is a major reason, along with this pitching mismatch, why we are backing the San Fran Giants today. We do so on the run line, backed by an 83% situation.  


Betting Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates are certainly underperforming expectations. After averaging 93 victories in the previous 3 seasons, with post-season appearances each year, the Bucs were again projected for a winning season of 86 games. At 34-37, they have clearly underachieved. That is reflected by their recent slides of 6-18 and 2-11. Their batting OPS has fallen to the point that it no longer provides them an edge over this San Fran team. But the real reason for the Pittsburgh demise has been inferior pitching. That has been characterized by injuries to their starting rotation and inconsistency throughout, including a bullpen whose numbers are now in the bottom 1/3 of the league, after being in the Top 10 in recent seasons!  

The San Fran Giants, who have won 3 World Series this decade, are again in line for a post-season appearance. Projected to win 89 games this season, behind a strong starting rotation which added Cueto and Samardzija, the Giants now stand at 45-27. That includes current streaks of 28-9 and 9-1 in which they have averaged 6 RPG. San Fran is also 23-14 on the road, tied with Washington for the most road wins in MLB. 

Starting pitching provides us another meaningful edge in this game. Liriano has admittedly pitched better from this mound with a .674 home OPS compared to his .814 YTD OPS number. But, he is winless since May 24th, dropping his last 4 decisions with a 6.86 ERA. Clearly, the bullpen, behind him, should not be trusted! 

Samardzija has fit in nicely as an upper echelon starter. He is 8-4 for the year with a 3.14 ERA and .665 OPS.That is even better on the road, where it is .636. He comes off a return to form game in which he pitched a complete game 4-hitter, allowing just one run in a victory at Tampa Bay on Friday.  

We are eager to play this game on the run line and take back a healthy price, based on the analysis above and the fact that 19 of 23 (83%) San Fran road wins have been by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the San Fran Giants tonight.

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MLB Pick: Giants -1.5 +160
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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