Free MLB Picks: Take Diamondbacks To Pull Mild Upset Over Pirates

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, May 25, 2016 2:35 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 25, 2016 2:35 PM UTC

It looks like the small road underdogs have the starting pitching edge Wednesday night, giving those Arizona Diamondbacks value when they pay a visit to the Pittsburgh Pirates.


MLB Record: 28-26-1, +5.75

An apparent starting pitching edge Wednesday night could give the small road underdogs value when right-hander Rubby De La Rosa and those Arizona Diamondbacks (21-26, 14-9 away) pay a visit to southpaw Jeff Locke and the Pittsburgh Pirates (25-19, 13-9 home) for the second game of a three-game series from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA at 7:05 ET in a game available on ROOT.

The posted money line at BetDSI has Arizona as a scant underdog for this contest at current MLB odds of +108.


Pirates Trying to Keep Pace with Cubs
The Pirates are trying to keep pace with the Cubs in the National League Central, as while Chicago still owns the best record in baseball at 30-14, Pittsburgh remains only five games back in second place at 25-19. The Bucs have now been victorious in four of their last five games after blowing out Arizona in the series opener 12-1 here last night.

The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment after spending a lot of money to supposedly improve the starting rotation during the off-season by adding Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, both of whom have struggled for their new team. In fact Miller was a key reason why Arizona was the losing MLB pick last night as he did not give his team a chance, allowing six earned runs in five innings. The Snakes are fourth in the National League West, 7½ games out of first.


De La Rosa in Fine Form
For all of those high priced pitching additions, the incumbent De La Rosa might be pitching the best ball on the Arizona staff right now. Rubby tossed another gem vs. the San Francisco Giants last time out allowing one run and just one hit in 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts, although he did also run up his pitch count with four walks. Still, that marked the fourth time in his last five starts that De La Rosa allowed one earned run or less!

That has lowered his ERA to 3.53 to go along with a 1.06 WHIP, and De La Rosa has a fine ratio of 45 strikeouts vs. 15 walks in 43.1 innings, leading to a 3.81 FIP and 3.64 xFIP that validate the ERA. Thus, we are not too concerned about the four walks last time out as that appears to be an anomaly.

Furthermore, De La Rosa has been dominant in two starts vs. the Pirates since the beginning of last season, allowing one run and just three hits with six strikeouts vs. one walk in six innings earlier this season after allowing one run on four hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts and not a single walk last year.


Locke the Weakest Link in Rotation
Now, the Pittsburgh starting rotation has actually underwhelmed this year with a cumulative 4.17 ERA, and Locke has been the weakest link as the fifth starter, going 2-3 with an atrocious 5.00 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The worst part is that he actually brought those figures down by allowing two earned runs on six hits plus two walks in seven innings in his last start, but that was vs. the offensively inept Atlanta Braves.

Unfortunately for Locke, his peripheral numbers are right in line with his weak mainstream stats as he has a poor command ratio of 6.20 strikeouts vs. an ungodly 4.60 walks per nine innings, leading to a 5.02 FIP and 4.82 xFIP. He has also been abysmal in his three career starts vs. the Diamondbacks, posting a 6.87 ERA and 1.80 WHIP with just 11 strikeouts vs. six walks while lasting a total of only 18.1 innings.

The southpaw now faces an Arizona lineup batting .304 while averaging 5.71 runs vs. left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games.


Arizona Better on the Road
Finally, the Diamondbacks actually finished one game better on the road than they did at home last year, but that may have not been an anomaly because here they are again this season sitting with a winning 14-9 record on the road compared to a dismal 7-17 mark back home in the desert! In fact Arizona is still 7-3 in the last 10 road games even after the loss here last night, while the Pirates are 0-6 in Locke’s last six starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

With De La Rosa being the better starting pitcher in this game by a pretty wide margin, look for those trends to continue with Arizona prevailing as a small road underdog visiting Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Want more games to cash in on? Take a look at our top 2 profitable selections for tonight!

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993535, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +109
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

comment here