Free MLB Picks for Royals vs. Orioles Game 3 ALCS

Joe Catalano

Tuesday, October 14, 2014 1:32 PM GMT

Down 2-0 in this best of 7 American League Championship Series, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a must win situation. Game 3 was postponed due to rain and the Orioles have had an extra day to think about it. See who we like as our betting pick in this crucial matchup.

First pitch is set for 8:07 p.m.. ET tonight at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. This game will be televised on TBS network.

5Dimes Sportsbook lists the Orioles as a -110 MLB odds betting favorite and while the total varies from book to book, 5Dimes currently list it at 7 runs.

Baltimore has dominated their division all season long, winning by double digit games. Kansas City was 9 outs away from losing the Wild Card, down 7-3 in that game and found a way to pull off a miracle. The Royals haven't made the playoffs in an amazing 29 years. Can they seal the deal and put away game 3 against a team that's had a far superior season to them? All of the pressure is on Baltimore here and the betting odds certainly indicate that.

 

Chen vs. Guthrie
Baltimore definitely has the edge in starting pitching as Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.54) gets the call from skipper Buck Showalter against former Oriole Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13). That said, this is the playoffs where the unexpected seems to happen.

Chen has choked under the pressure once before on October 3rd when the O's faced the Detroit Tigers. He allowed 5 runs, 7 hits, and 2 home runs in just 3 2/3 innings pitched as the Orioles managed to come back and win that game 7-6. Chen gets a chance to redeem himself here, but Baltimore can ill-afford to go down 3-0 in this series. If there are any signs of trouble for Chen, expect Buck Showalter to give Chen an immediate hook and replace him with anyone who isn't scheduled to pitch in game 4.

Jeremy Guthrie hasn't pitched since September 26th. In that game,.he was near perfect, allowing just 4 hits in 7 innings against Chicago. Guthrie was near dominant in his last 3 starts of the season. Overall, he's a below .500 pitcher for his career. Which Jeremy Guthrie will show up? We'll find out tonight as he faces an Orioles team with a lot of power that can change the complexion of ball game with one swing of the bat.

 

Speed vs. Power?
Although this is your typical speed vs. power matchup, the Royals have been using the longball to their benefit. Both Eric Hosmer (2 HR, 7 RBI, .435) and Mike Moustakas (4 HR, 5 RBI, 318) have been coming up huge for a team that usually manufactures runs with their legs. If you all remember, it was Hosmer's triple that got things started in the wild card game or the Royals wouldn't be in this position. Even though they've been hitting the ball hard, I don't expect many more homers from K.C. They will use what got them to this point and that's speed.

 

Bulletin Board Material
When a player makes a comment and almost guarantees something to happen, it usually comes back to bite him in the butt. In this case, the culprit, Jarrod Dyson, made the ignorant comment.

The speedy part-timer said that this series won't go back to Baltimore. You can bet that this quote is written on the Orioles chalkboard. The funny thing about it is that although Dyson is a contributor on the Royals squad, he only plays part-time. This will work to Baltimore's advantage.

While Adam Jones has been a non-factor in the playoffs, Nelson Cruz has been a stud, hitting .476 with 2 HR and 7 RBI in 21 at-bats. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cruz be a factor in this game. He hit 40 home runs in the regular season and no Kansas City player comes even close to that.

 

Outcome
Although the Royals have been dominant in this post-season, I don't like the day off due to the rain. This benefits the better team which is the Orioles. For your MLB picks look for Baltimore and Wei-Yin Chen to make sure that this series goes back to Camden Yards with a victory tonight.

MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles -110 at 5Dimes

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