Free MLB Picks: Rays vs. Orioles

Jeff Grant

Thursday, April 18, 2013 1:04 PM GMT

The Baltimore Orioles have won four of Miguel Gonzalez’ five starts against the Tampa Bay Rays, as the two teams prepare to close out a three-game series Thursday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the current MLB odds for this American League East matchup at Camden Yards, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Back-to-back wins hard to come by

Tampa Bay has won back-to-back games just once this season, as it comes off a 6-2 victory over Baltimore as -120 road favorites Wednesday, while the UNDER is on a 5-0-2 run in its last seven contests.

The Rays managed to tally two consecutive wins on April 5-6 versus the Cleveland Indians, while they’ve gone 35-29 in April the last two-plus seasons.

Alternative world

Baltimore has alternated wins and losses over its last six games, with the offense scoring just 17 runs, which has led to the UNDER going on a 4-2 run in that span.

The Orioles are 32-30 as home underdogs over the last two-plus seasons, with the OVER going 32-27-3 in that situation.

It’s important to note that the club has won nine of its last 13 home games against the Rays, while the UNDER is 39-19-4 in the last 62 meetings in this series.

Price 

Rays starting pitcher David Price (0-1, 5.82 ERA) has watched the club drop all three of his starts this year, as he failed to earn a decision in a 2-1 road loss to the Boston Red Sox last time out—allowing one run and four hits over six frames. 

The left-hander is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 12 career starts versus the Orioles, including a 3-0 mark and 2.54 ERA in six efforts at this ballpark. He’s also compiled a dominating 33-11 lifetime record against divisional foes. 

Price has received just four runs of support in his 17 innings of work this season, but the OVER is 4-1 in his last five starts in Baltimore. 

Gonzalez 

Orioles starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez (1-1, 2.92 ERA) suffered a 5-2 road loss to the New York Yankees last time out, as he surrendered three runs (two earned) and five hits over six frames, while walking five batters and striking out four.

The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in five career starts versus the Rays, including a 6-3 road victory on April 4—giving up two runs and five hits over 6.1 innings of work.

[gameodds]3/225124/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction 

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Orioles as one of their MLB picks Thursday night, as they’ve won 22 of their last 27 games following a loss, while the Rays are 2-6 in their last eight games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +115 at 5Dimes

Be sure to check out our coverege and picks for the Cardinals & Phillies matchup.