Free MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Diamondbacks

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, August 13, 2013 12:55 PM GMT

The Baltimore Orioles square off with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second game of a 3-games series on Tuesday night. It looks like the MLB odds makers are spot on with their lines, but where do we believe that we can find a betting edge?

Money Line

Baltimore -115

Arizona +105

Total

Over 9.0 (+100)

Under 9.0 (-120) 

Run Line

Baltimore -1.5 (+135)

Arizona +1.5 (-155)

The Orioles are 65-53 on the season, including a very respectable 32-28 on the road. Arizona enters this contest with a mark of 60-57 and is 34-26 in their home ball park. Last night Arizona used a walk off home run in the bottom of the 9th to win the first game of the series 7-6. The Diamondbacks remain 7.5 games back of the red-hot first place Dodgers in the NL West, and are 5.5 games behind Cincinnati for the final wild card spot in the National League. With the loss the Orioles remain 3rd in the AL East 5.0 games behind the division leading Boston Red Sox. The Orioles trail the Tampa Bay Rays by 2.0 games and the Oakland A’s by 2.5 games for the American League wild card spots.

Check out our Tuesday Morning MLB Odds & Betting Lines Report.

The Orioles are scheduled to send right-hander Miguel Gonzalez to the mound. In 20 starts this season Gonzalez is 8-5 with a 3.91 ERA. Gonzalez has really struggled over his last 3 team starts posting a large 8.16 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. The Orioles have been extremely profitable at home this season with Gonzalez as their starter going 8-1. Unfortunately the same can’t be said on the road where they’re just 4-7 with the young right-hander on the hill. Gonzalez is a very good 18-9 in his team starts at night over the last 2 seasons.

Arizona will counter with a right-hander of their own Randall Delgado. Delgado is 4-3 this season in 10 starts with a solid 3.48 ERA. Delgado is 5-0 in his last 5 team starts with a very good 3.13 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Delgado does have one career start versus the Orioles and it came last season. In that outing he turned in an outstanding performance allowing 2 earned runs on 3 hits in 8.0 innings while striking out 6 and walking just 1.

Arizona has seen 17 of their 23 games go under the MLB odds total this season following a 1-run win with an average combined total of 6.5 runs per game. In spite of last night’s high scoring affair the Diamondbacks have gone under the total in 14 of their 17 games this season versus an opponent who averages 1.25 or more home runs per game. Arizona has hit a very good .289 as a team over their last 7 games. If the Diamondbacks are going to make a serious playoff push they need to make a run right now. Arizona has been very mediocre over the last 5 weeks going just 18-16 in their last 34 games.

The Orioles have been in a funk over the last few weeks going just 8-10 over their last 18 games. One of the big stories of the season for Baltimore has been the production of Chris Davis. Davis hit his 43rd home run last night to tie the game in the 8th inning. Davis has also accumulated 110 RBI’s with still over 6 weeks remaining in the regular season. Although I’m not a proponent of trends that include how a team does on a specific day of the week. It’s worth mentioning that the Orioles are a very profitable 29-13 when playing on a Tuesday over the last 2 seasons.

[gameodds]3/241303/?r3=43-999997-349/dec&r-1=43-999997-349/us[/gameodds]

When it comes to placing my MLB picks in this game, I am not completely sold on any of the numbers on offer. I will say that this is a very high total considering the game is being played at a National League park and there will be no designated hitter in this Interleague affair. I would give the slightest of leans to going 'Under' the total in this game tonight.

MLB Picks: Slight lean on the 'Under'