Free MLB Picks: Orioles Ready To Take The Win Against Yankees

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, June 5, 2016 10:09 AM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 5, 2016 10:09 AM UTC

The rubber game at Camden Yards between the Yankees and Orioles occurs this afternoon as these AL East rivals wrap up their three-game set. Let's review the MLB odds.

Swinger’s 2016 MLB Record: 28-15, +12.98 units

We cashed another ticket yesterday in our MLB picks when the New York Mets did us proud by defeating their hosts, the Miami Marlins, by the score of 6-4 as slight road chalk. I have been around the gambling game long enough, never get too high or too low because a heater, or a cooler, could be just over the horizon. That being said, I think it's time to sit back and reflect upon a season that sees us well in front of the bookmaker and has us hitting at a white hot 65 percent. Let's keep our fingers crossed and our heads down as we do our homework, study the MLB odds and make the right calls.

Here's looking at this afternoon's AL East showdown between New York and Baltimore.


New York Yankees (26-29, -4.5 units)
The Bombers took a 7-0 lead into the seventh inning yesterday and barely hung on to defeat their hosts, the Baltimore Orioles, by the score of 8-6. It's not often we see a team squander a seven run lead late in the game but the bottom line is that New York won the game and delivered a decent return to all those who backed the road underdog yesterday. Alex Rodriguez contributed three hits on the day and the Yankees anemic offense awoke with a thunder, banging out eight runs on 16 hits. Despite that offensive explosion, New York is in the bottom third of all the major offensive statistical categories.

C.C. Sabathia gets the starting assignment for the Pinstripers today after being the victim of two hard luck losses in a row. Sabathia was on the wrong side of two close decisions against the Blue Jays when he allowed two runs (zero earned) on just two hits in a 3-1 loss on May 26th and then two runs on five hits in a 4-1 loss in his last start. Sabathia is beginning to resemble the ace of old and is 21-7 when starting against the Orioles over his career with an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.140. His team's record is 25-11 (+8.9 units) in these starts.


Baltimore Orioles (31-23, +7.1 units)
The Orioles find themselves in second place in the AL East trailing the suddenly surging Boston Red Sox. Despite getting down by seven runs the O's gamely fought their way back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh inning but it was too little too late, as they fell 8-6 and tumbled out of first place. Baltimore's offense is 11th in team batting average, on base percentage and runs scored while ranking 4th in slugging percentage.

Twenty-five-year-old right hander Kevin Gausman takes the hill for the O's this afternoon and has gotten roughed up in his last pair of outings. Gausman allowed four runs on five hits in a 4-2 loss in Houston and followed that up by surrendering five runs on five hits in a 6-2 loss to Boston. The former LSU product is 1-1 when starting against the Yankees over his career with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.972. His team's record is 4-2 (+2.5 units) in these starts.

Betting Analysis
The O's have had their way against the Yanks over the past three seasons when playing in Camden Yards as evidenced by their 17-6 mark, garnering over 10 units for their backers. The pitchers here appear to be going in separate directions with Sabathia pitching well over his last pair of starts while Baltimore's Kevin Gausman has a 5.09 ERA over his last three starts. The problem with backing Sabathia is that I am still unconvinced he has made a total turnaround at the age of 35. Sabathia is the fifth man in the Yankees rotation and will eventually regress to the mean. I am convinced of it and to make matters worse, his offense is amongst the least potent in the league.

Meanwhile, the Orioles offense can hammer it when they have to and if Sabathia is not on top of his game it could get ugly very early. Also, the Yankees have a real problem at catcher as Brian McCann continues to be bothered by a sore elbow while his backup Austin Romine tore his thumbnail off in yesterday's contest. Let's hope that New York's catching woes, and Sabathia's 5.27 ERA over his last 20 afternoon starts, derails them as we back the home chalk in this one.

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MLB Pick: Orioles -127
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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