Free MLB Picks: Must Lay Vig To Profit From Padres vs. Dodgers

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, May 1, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

Sunday, May. 1, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

The MLB odds have the Padres as heavy underdogs in the first two of their three-game set against the Dodgers but they have paid dividends for their backers with victories in both contests.

San Diego Padres (9-15, -3.6 units)
After dropping five straight the Padres, mired in the muck of the weak NL West, have reeled off two stunning victories over Los Angeles in Dodger Stadium. On Friday night the MLB odds makers installed the Padres as -160 road favorites and all they did was deliver a 5-1 victory. Last night they made all the chalk eaters, who chased the Dodgers in their MLB picks, very unhappy as they claimed a 5-2 win and guaranteed a series win with only the finale left to play this afternoon. Offensively, San Diego is a middling 15th and 16th in runs scored and team batting average respectively, while their on base percentage and slugging percentage is in the bottom third which means solid pitching is critical.

San Diego hands the ball to southpaw Drew Pomeranz who sports a 2-2 mark to complement a 2.86 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Pomeranz has acquitted himself nicely this season though his last outing was a bit on the shaky side when he lasted just four plus innings and allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits en route to a 5-4 loss to San Francisco on Monday night. The 27-year-old is 0-2 when starting against the Dodgers with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.714. His team's record is 2-2 (+1.3 units) in his four career starts against LA.

Los Angeles Dodgers (12-13, -7.6 units)
They say home is where the heart is but right now the Dodgers wish they were anywhere else after winning four of their last five on the road then dropping six straight on their current seven-game homestand. First the Marlins swooped in and swept the Dodgers in a four-game series and today they are in jeopardy of the Padres sweeping in three. The last time Big Blue dropped seven straight was way back in 1993 and they will match that dubious distinction with a loss today.

Clayton Kershaw, one of the most feared pitchers in baseball, will do his level best to ensure that the Dodgers and their fans do not endure another day of losing. Kershaw boasts a 2-1 mark and a 2.43 ERA despite getting roughed by the Marlins up in his last outing when he surrendered five runs on seven hits in seven innings of work. In the end the Dodgers' ace was tagged with the 6-3 loss and must now prove it was but a bump in the road as he takes on the lowly Padres.

 

Betting Analysis
Though the Padres are 2-0 versus the Dodgers this season it is in fact Los Angeles who has owned this series in recent memory. LA is 14-7, they were 14-5 prior to this series, in all games played against the Padres over the past three seasons. In addition, Clayton Kershaw has enjoyed great success against San Diego throughout his career, owning a 13-6 record when starting against the Padres with an ERA of 2.16 and a WHIP of 1.065. His team's record is 20-8 (+4.0 units) in these starts. One would think that winning 20 of 28 contests would earn a return far greater than a mere four units but when Kershaw goes against a weak team like the Padres, he gets saddled with a big price, just like today.

So what do we do here? The Dodgers offense has proven to be a bit more potent than the Padres but the advantage is not so huge that it tips the scales heavily in their favor. However, we have one of the most dominant pitchers in the game today coming off an embarrassing loss coupled with a team that is poised to match an ignominious home losing streak. While Drew Pomeranz has pitched well, his history tells us that this starter/reliever will eventually begin to return to his mean. That may have already begun with his four inning stint in his last outing against the Giants. Experienced baseball bettors hate to lay this kind of lumber, but I am reminded of the old adage concerning betting big underdogs solely because of the return...there is no value in losing.

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Free MLB Pick: LA Dodgers -290 
Best Line Offered: at BetDSI
MLB Record: 15-7, +7.87 units

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