Free MLB Picks: The Marlins Offer Value vs Twins In Target Field

Drew Martin

Tuesday, June 7, 2016 6:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 7, 2016 6:00 PM UTC

The lack of home field advantage for the Twins, plus some lefty / righty matchup splits are important reasons the Fish are the MLB Pick tonight in this matchup.

The Miami Marlins and the Minnesota Twins square off for the first time since 2013 to open a three-game set tonight at Target Field. This Interleague series is the beginning of a nine-game road swing for the Marlins. It is the middle series of a ten game home stand for Minnesota. The Twins have won a total nine home games this season, which is the worst home record in the American League. Only the Atlanta Braves, with six home wins, have a worse record in their home park.

The AL Central’s last place team has also lost 14 of their past 17 at Target Field. They last won a home series by taking two of three on April 25-27. The lack of home field advantage for the Twins, plus some lefty/ righty matchup splits are important reasons the Fish are the bet tonight in this matchup.

Adam Conley gets the start for the Marlins tonight after the fish had a day off yesterday to make the trip from south Florida to Minnesota. The former Washington State Cougar has impressed this year going 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA this season. Conley carried a no-hit bid into the sixth inning on Wednesday before finishing his nine-strikeout performance versus Pittsburgh.

His last outing was the second time the tall, talented lefty carried a no hit bit into the sixth inning. The 26-year-old has fared well on the road, posting a 2-0 mark with a 2.93 ERA while surrendering just one homer in 30 2/3 frames. Conley, who has yet to face Minnesota in his career, was selected by the Twins in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft before opting to attend Washington State.

Pat Dean (1-2, 4.15 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota. The rookie southpaw gave up two runs in each of his first two career starts before surrendering four runs on nine hits over five innings against the Athletics his last time out. Dean who pitched at Boston College was selected in the third round of the 2010 draft by the Twins. Sunday's loss to the Rays was the second consecutive game in which Minnesota has allowed four home runs, a streak the 27 year old lefty will attempt to break against the Marlins lineup.

The National League Marlins playing in an American League park with both teams gaining the DH does cause concern, but in this particular case the positives out way the negatives. Looking at how bad this Twins team has performed at home and to make matters worse the Twins are 2-5 in interleague play this year. Also Miguel Sano, a powerful bat in the Minnesota lineup is out tonight on the DL.

Taking into consideration the Twins have really struggled against lefties posting a team OPS of .678 vs southpaws. Minnesota remains a team to fade. The Marlins young lefty Adam Conley looks to take advantage of the Minnesota mishaps and has betting value tonight in Target Field. For your MLB Pick I recommend a wager on the Fish as a moderately priced favorite on the MLB Odds board.

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Free MLB Pick:  Marlins -114
Best Line Offered:  at Bookmaker

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