Free MLB Picks: Indians vs Braves MLB Betting Value Analysis

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, June 27, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 27, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

The Indians and Braves begin the first of their early week, 3-game set at Turner Field. Where is the best value MLB Pick for the first game in the series? Read on and cash out!

We will follow that momentum, a dominant hitting advantage and a mismatch between starting pitchers for a run line MLB Pick on Cleveland, which will be clearly supported by the run line history of these teams.

Let’s give the Atlanta Braves their due! Since Snitker took over, the Braves are 17-21, including positive runs of 10-7 and 8-3. On Sunday, they beat the Mets (5-2) on this field to split their weekend set with the New Yorkers. But, they are still just 11-29 on this field with a .634 OPS, 100 points lower, than the average of MLB teams.

Pitching from this mound has also been a problem for today’s starter, Gant. In 4 appearances at Turner Field, Gant has a 7.36 ERA. That is certainly a cause for concern when facing a team who is pounding the ball, as is Cleveland!

The Tribe enters this matchup with 9 consecutive victories, following (3) 3-game sweeps of CWS (outscored the White Sox 19-6), Tampa Bay (outscored the Rays 19-5) and Detroit this weekend in 3 games where they outscored the Tigers 21-7. Those are dominating combined final scores of 59-18, leading to an average margin of victory of 6.7-2 RPG.

Lone concern is a letdown following that 9-game sweep of 3 divisional opponents. In the process, Cleveland’s division lead has swollen to 5 games and they have increased their record to 21-18. With a .756 YTD OPS and a .684 bullpen OPS, there are clear edges in both of those categories for Cleveland.

But, the real edge is on the mound, where Bauer has stepped up as a dominant No. 4 starter, behind Cleveland’s big 3 of Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar. Bauer has been at his best of late with 6 quality starts. In fact, in his last 4 starts, spanning 31 2/3 IP, Bauer has allowed just 5 ER with a 32/6 K/BB. His last outing vs. Tampa Bay was a complete game victory, in which he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits with 10 Ks. 

Based on Cleveland’s recent dominance and their winning streak, it is a short leap to get to this MLB Odds' run line selection. That is especially true knowing that 17 of 21 Cleveland road wins have been by 2 or more runs, while 38 of 49 Atlanta losses have been by 2 or more runs. In fact, in this park in the last 1+ years, 57 of 68 Atlanta home losses have been by 2 or more runs.

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Free MLB Pick:  Indians -139
Best Line Offered:  at YouWager

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