Free MLB Picks: Greinke Brings Huge Value To D'backs vs Rockies

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, June 23, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 23, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

The Diamondbacks and Rockies begin a four game weekend set in the mile high city of Denver. First pitch for the contest is set for 8:40 eastern. Let's look at the MLB Odds and cash in!

In the following analysis I will point out why the Diamondbacks are “Play on” team and why the pitching mismatch greatly favors Arizona for our MLB Picks. There will be also ample proof to support the reasons why we make this a run-in selection.

In the article I will publish on this site tomorrow you will be privileged to find out why Arizona is one of my three short term “Play on” teams, based on a record (34-40) which is greatly under achieving their combination of batting and pitching OPS numbers which are in the top half of the league. This turnaround already started as the Dbacks are on positive runs of 10-3 and 5-1.

While Arizona is under achieving their 82 projected wins for the season, the Rockies are actually over achieving their projected 71 wins (the most they would have in three years) with a 34-37 mark. The starting pitching mismatch is the real clincher.

For Colorado Butler is a replacement starter out of the bullpen for Chatwood. When Chatwood left his previews start Butler worked 3 and a third IP against Miami allowing 6 runs and 9 hits. Butler now has a 6.26 ERA for the year.

After a pair of shaky starts to begin the season (while not 100% healthy) Greinke has just gotten better as the season progresses. In his previews 9 starts he is 8-1 with a 2.39 ERA. That is even better in his last four starts in which he allowed a total of three earned runs with a 0.85 ERA. The best work for Greinke has come on the road. In six starts away from home he is 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA and .502 road OPS. At this point in the season he is “must play”.

We confidently play the game on the run-line offered o n the MLB Odds boards, knowing that 27 of 34 (nearly 80%) of Arizona wins have come by two or more runs, while 15 of 16 Colorado home losses have come by two or more runs. This is not unusual for the Rockies, as in the previews four years 130 of 162 Colorado home losses are by two or more runs. That is more than 80%.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2991924, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1½ +100
Best Line Offered: at Intertops

comment here