Free MLB Picks: Grab These Tuesday Totals & Dominate Your Bookie

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, July 5, 2016 2:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 5, 2016 2:38 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots two situational wagers where the bullpens should get plenty of action making the Over a value proposition as you make your Tuesday MLB Picks.

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros continue their three-game set this evening in an effort to set themselves apart as the 2nd place team in the AL West. The Mariners lost on Independence Day, 2-1, with a very uninspired effort after sweeping the Orioles at home over the weekend. Travel appeared to be an issue for the Mariners as they got into Houston very late, while the Astros just continued their home stand after losing a series to the White Sox.

Taking the mound for the Astros is Dallas Keuchel, who has returned to his 2012-2013 form. This is not a good thing for Astros fans. On the year, Keuchel has put up a 5-9 record, 5.13 ERA, 93/34 K/BB rate, 1.42 WHIP, and .277 batting average allowed. More shockingly, Keuchel’s home run rates have skyrocketed and he is running an 18.7% HR/FB rate, which would be the highest of his career. The Mariners are actually one of the leaders in home runs this year, with power up and down the lineup. With Keuchel’s fastball now sitting in the low-80’s mistakes will be crushed on Tuesday night.

Starting for the Mariners is Taijuan Walker, who made his first start back after being skipped in the rotation for some inflammation in his foot. Walker has pitched fairly well this season, but also has some issues with home runs as he carries a 16.5% HR/FB rate. On the year, Walker has posted a 4-6 record, 3.29 ERA, 75/19 K/BB rate, 1.12 WHIP, and .234 batting average against. His performance with a lingering foot injury could be in question, and at best we see a struggling Seattle bullpen come in earlier in the game.  

These teams have a history of high scoring games in those played at Minute Maid Park, as the Over is 16-6 over the last three years for +9.9 units. With each team’s offense averaging more than 5 runs per game in their last seven, look for this trend to continue on Tuesday night. With a reasonable total currently listed at 7.5 runs, the Over is the value MLB pick here.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 7.5 +100 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline 


Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
With Madison Bumgarner on the mound for the San Francisco Giants, it is no surprise to me that the opening low total has been posted of 6.5 runs in this game. It’s the second time in a row that total has been posted with Bumgarner starting at home.

In this one, Bumgarner draws the Colorado Rockies and Tyler Chatwood, who will be making his first start after going on the DL with a back issue. Much like the situation with Taijuan Walker above, even if Chatwood pitches relatively well there is not a good chance this will be a long outing. For this reason, the Colorado bullpen and their 4.98 ERA should come into play in this game. The Colorado bullpen would be a welcome sight for the Giants as they have been on fire offensively of late, but also giving up runs at almost the same clip. In their past seven games the O-U is 5-1-1 and the Giants have scored 6.1 runs per game while giving up 5.9.

The last three Bumgarner starts, including two in 2016, have gone well over the listed total for the game. Chatwood is 1-2 O-U in his last three, but in each of those games the final total would exceed 6.5 runs.

The bar is set a little too low here, and now the line has started to get away from us. Although I would have liked to have the hook at 6.5, with the Colorado bullpen sure to make an extended appearance I still think there is value for MLB odds at Over 7 runs +100 at Heritage this Tuesday night.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 7 +100
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage 

MLB 2016 Record: 32-18-3, +13.01 Units


Check Out Our MLB Picks of The Day: Major Moneyline Value to Beat the Books

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