Free MLB Picks: Fantastic Undervalued W/ Royals As They Face Angels In Game 3.

Drew Martin

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 7:03 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 27, 2016 7:03 PM UTC

L.A. Angels face the defending World Series Champion Kansas City Royals tonight. Angels openned as the home fav, but will Royals be able to create an upset tonight? MLB pick inside.

Kansas City Royals vs. L.A. Angels
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim host the defending World Series Champion Kansas City Royals tonight in what is the last matchup of a three game series where the Angels look to make it three in a row, and sweep the (12-8) Royals. The Angels bats have been heating up of late, led by the resurgence of Albert Pujols, but Chris Young has posted some interesting metrics that project favorably tonight in Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

Former Ivy-Leaguer Chris Young will take the mound for the Royals for the fifth time this year with the hopes of cutting into his elevated 6.41 ERA. Earlier this season, the 36 year-old righty got shelled in his two starts against the Houston Astros and the Oakland Athletics. In his outing against the power hitting Astros, Young was dealt a rough hand, as he had to navigate a talented lineup in a very hitter-friendly park in Houston. The dimensions of Minute Maid Park and Chris Young were the worst combination Royals backers could imagine, and sure enough, he lasted just 4.2 innings. Next time out, Young was asked to tame the lefty-heavy lineup of the Oakland Athletics. That appearance was a forgettable one as well, as he once again could not make it to the fifth inning.

This time around however, the fly-ball pitcher is facing a majority right-handed hitting lineup in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of MLB. Young has more than a .300 point differential in opponent’s OPS when facing lefties compared to righties, perfectly illustrating his struggles against hitters from the left side. Further, Young has struggled in parks with dimensions similar to Houston, as what are long fly-ball outs at home tend to leave the yard, but the Royals’ veteran righty will not have to deal with either of those factors in Anaheim, making the Royals an attractive side tonight.

On the other side, Nick Tropeano takes the mound for the Angels. The former fifth round pick from New York has been impressive so far, having posted a 1.69 ERA through his first three games this year. He got his first start of the year on April 11th, as he took the rotation spot formerly occupied by injured Angels’ starter Andrew Heaney. On the surface, all looks good for the former Stony Brook Seawolf, but when you look at a very important metric, WHIP, things become worrisome. Tropeano has a 1.438 WHIP, and he issued four walks through only 5.1 innings pitched last time out. When a pitcher’s WHIP and ERA that are that close together, alarm bells start ringing, as sustainable success at the big league level is untenable with that dynamic.


Betting Analysis
The Royals had won 10 of the previous 11 meetings in Anaheim, including the postseason, prior to this series. Considering that history with the fact that Mike Moustakas is heating up, having homered in the first last night, and that Eric Hosmer extended his hitting streak to a career-high tying 16, I recommend a bet on the undervalued Royals as your MLB pick to avoid the sweep tonight in Anaheim. Royals openned up as +100 moneyline on the MLB odds, but are currently trending in the low +120s. 

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Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +122
Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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