Free MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Mets

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, April 24, 2013 1:32 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 24, 2013 1:32 PM GMT

New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey has arguably been the most dominating pitcher in baseball to start the 2013 season, as he prepares to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the first time in his career Wednesday night.


Let’s take a closer look at the MLB odds for this National League matchup at Citi Field, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Scoring some runs

Los Angeles has scored 14 combined runs in winning back-to-back games, including a 7-2 victory over New York as -145 road favorites Tuesday night, while going OVER the total for the sixth time in seven contests. 

The Dodgers have outscored the Mets 38-19 during a five-game winning streak in this series, while the OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in the Big Apple. 

Alternating pattern 

New York has alternated wins and losses over its last five games, while the OVER is 4-1 during that span. The Mets will need to win the next two games in hopes of winning their first four home series to being the 2013 MLB campaign.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the club is 33-35 in April, with the OVER going 43-24-1 in that situation. 

Lilly 

Dodgers starting pitcher Ted Lilly will be making his first start of the year, as he last pitched on April 16 for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga in a rehab assignment—working his way back from left shoulder surgery. He allowed four runs on seven hits in five frames in that effort. 

The left-hander is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA in seven career games (six starts) versus the Mets, but has never made an appearance at this ballpark. The 37-year-old tallied a 2-1 record and 6.46 ERA in three road starts a season ago.

Lilly will need to be careful in pitching to New York outfielder Marlon Byrd, who is 8 for 17 (.471) against him with a home run and eight RBI. 

Harvey 

Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey (4-0, 0.93 ERA) has watched the club win all four of his outings, including a 7-1 home victory over the Washington Nationals last time out, as he allowed one run and four hits over seven innings of work.

The right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two home starts this season, issuing five walks and striking out 17 batters in 14 combined frames. 

Harvey will be making his first career appearance against the Dodgers—entering with a 7-5 overall record and 2.14 ERA in 14 starts since getting called up a season ago.

[gameodds]3/225556/43/us[/gameodds]

Prediction

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Mets in the first five innings as one of their MLB picks Wednesday night, as I’m not interested in relying on their bullpen—a group that ranks 30th in the league with a 5.46 ERA. 

New York has outscored opponents by a 21-1 margin in the first five frames with Harvey on the hill.

MLB Pick: New York Mets First Five Innings -170 at BetOnline

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