Free MLB Picks: Chatwood To Silence Padres Bats This Saturday

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, June 11, 2016 10:00 AM GMT

Our MLB handicapper spots an out of control O/U line and pounces on wagering value for his Saturday MLB pick, so read on and share in the spoils of this amazing MLB Pick.

The Colorado Rockies continue their home stand on Saturday night as they host the second game of a three game series against the San Diego Padres. San Diego took the first game in the series 7-5, as the bullpen of Colorado let them down very late in the game. Both teams will look to stay relevant in the NL West as the Giants and Dodgers look to run away with the division. The game has opened with the home team Rockies favored by as much as -230 on the moneyline over at BookMaker. That line has stayed put so far, but the O/U total has had a major move since opening. After opening at 11.5 runs at multiple sportsbooks, the line has move quickly to 12 runs across the board.

Newly acquired Erik Johnson from the White Sox is slated to start this game for the San Diego Padres. Johnson came over to the Padres in the trade that sent James Shields over to the White Sox last week. The ChiSox must not have cared that Shields had gotten lit up in his most recent starts. But I digress, Johnson had only started for the White Sox twice this year, which appear to be spot starts on May 5th and May 23rd. In each game this year he has made it through the 5th inning, but he hasn’t made through those innings without giving up a couple of dingers. It’s actually the 8th straight game that Johnson has started that he has given up a home run, dating to last September.

Since Johnson has given up 5 home runs in his last twelve innings pitched, it is interesting to look at his advanced stats to see if the underlying indications are evident. A full 33.3% of Johnson’s given up fly balls have left the yard in his starts this year. When you look at Johnson’s batted ball statistics you will find that 50% of those balls put into play were classified as ‘hard’ hit. Additionally, 41.7% if balls hit were pulled. Having a tendency to throw a hard hit pitch that is pulled is a classic risk profile of a pitcher who gives up dingers.

Those statistics couldn’t be more different than those of Colorado starter, Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood has a long history of allowing weak contact, and his ‘medium’ batted ball rate tells the story. Over his career, Chatwood runs a 55.2% medium hit contact rate, which has carried through to this year. He also has carried a very strong 53.2% ground ball rate over his career. Let me see, a pitcher who gives up weak ground balls in Colorado? Sign me up! Over the year, Chatwood is running a 7-4 record, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 49/23 K/BB rate, and .230 batting average against.

So if we have our analysis right, we have a fly ball and home run prone pitcher for the San Diego Padres going in Erik Johnson, and a ground ball pitcher going for the Colorado Rockies – in mile high Coors Field. No wonder the MLB Odds favor the Colorado Rockies at -230 at BookMaker. But I guess I am here to find wagering value, and a -230 moneyline in a divisional game is anything but value. No, here I believe the value is that Chatwood can have a strong enough outing that the O/U of 12 does not come into play. I’m taking under 12 runs in this game as my MLB Pick.

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Free MLB Pick:  Under 12 +105
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
MLB Record: 22-11-2, +10.69 Units