Free MLB Picks: Cash In On The Total Of The Mets vs. Braves Game

Jason Lake

Saturday, June 25, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jun. 25, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

The New York Mets finally beat the Atlanta Braves and the baseball odds Friday. Can they do it again Saturday with Jacob deGrom on the mound? What's the MLB Pick on this game?

Score another one for the good guys. We had the New York Mets in Friday's MLB Picks, expecting them to pound the Atlanta Braves and rookie pitcher Aaron Blair. So it was written, so did it come to pass; New York scored eight runs off Blair, then held on for the 8-6 win to cash out as a -202 road fave on the closing line.

Shall we give the Mets another spin? They're sending Jacob deGrom to the mound for Saturday's rematch (7:15 p.m. ET, FOX). DeGrom is one of the very best pitchers in the majors, but he hasn't gotten much run support lately – four straight quality starts, four straight defeats for the New York, who scored a total of two runs during that span. ¡Ay, caramba!

Memories of Teheran
Wouldn't you know it, the last of those four losses was against the same pitcher deGrom (3.07 FIP) will be matched up with on Saturday. Julio Teheran (3.83 FIP) threw a one-hitter against the Mets last Sunday; deGrom gave up three runs in six innings, and Atlanta (+168 away) scored three more against the bullpen for a 6-0 victory.

Despite that result, the Mets (39-33, -6.75 units) are -135 road faves on Saturday's MLB Odds. That's pretty close to what FiveThirtyEight have with their projections. They've got New York winning 56 percent of the time, which turns into -127 when you cram it into our SBR Betting Odds Converter. It's a good converter, you should try it sometime.

Teheran's a good pitcher, too, but he's usually the one getting stuck without any run support. The Braves (25-48, –10.84 units) have scored 2.47 runs per game behind Teheran, leaving him 5.45 units in the red on a team record of 4-11. But DeGrom hasn't done much better at 5-7 and 5.13 units in losses with 3.08 runs of support on his side. This might be a good time to take the Under on the total of seven runs; the Under is 9-4-2 for Teheran this year and 7-5 for deGrom.

Fantasy Corner
So is there anyone on either team who has some kryptonite in his bat? Say hello to OF Nick Markakis (.671 OPS). Okay, he's not doing much this year, but he's 4-for-12 lifetime against deGrom with a home run and a .917 OPS. Markakis is owned in 18.6 percent of ESPN leagues, so he should be there for you if you need him.

Yeah, we're going with the Under here at the ranch, even though it's one of the lowest totals on Saturday's board. This figures to be a close game between two injured and light-hitting teams, so let's roll with it.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7 -113
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Record: 14-13 ML, 4-0-1 Totals (+5.14 units)

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