Free MLB Picks: Cappers Lean Nationals Tonight vs Phillies

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 31, 2016 4:00 PM UTC

That victory lifted the Washington record to 31-21 with a narrow 1-game division lead over the Mets. The 16-10 road record of the Nationals is only bettered by the Cubs in the National League.

The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies continue their early week series with this 7:05 ET start. Monday night, Washington captured the first game 4-3.

The Philadelphia Phillies are at last coming back to earth. After beginning the year with a 24-15 record, the Phillies are now on a 2-8 slide (losers of 4 consecutive games), after being thumped soundly by the Cubs in their just completed weekend series, then losing last night to Washington. This decline is identifiable because of the horrendous Philadelphia offense. Even as a winning team (one more night), they are still operating at a -44 net run differential. The No 28th ranked batting OPS at .653 is a clear indicator that they are no longer likely to be on the plus side of the ledger. The bullpen is now operating at the No. 18 OPS at .712.

The price in this contest is competitive because Nola is on a recent 7-game run, in which he has gone 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA. A closer pitching analysis finds that Washington has had their way against him in 3 of 4 starts, in which Nola has a 5.32 ERA. That history is far divergent from his mound opponent today. Joe Ross spun 7 2/3 innings of 3-hit ball in a 9-1 win over Philadelphia in his most recent start against the Phillies from this mound. The YTD numbers for Ross are solid with a 2.52 ERA and .672 OPS. In addition, he is in good current form, including his most recent start in which he worked 7 IP allowing just 1 run on 6 hits against the powerful attack of St. Louis.

We have little problem facing the Phillies on this field with the knowledge that home teams in MLB thru Monday, May 30th are just 284-279. As well, numbers at the 30% mark of the season have now gravitated toward parity with 23 of the 30 teams playing between .434 and .596 baseball.

For those who are brave, you will note the nice payback on the run line which is supported by the fact that 12 of 16 Washington road wins have come by 2 or more runs, while 19 of 25 Philadelphia defeats have come by 2 or more runs. We will settle for the value money line price which has been notably beaten down since the opener. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Washington Nationals tonight.

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Free MLB Pick:  Nationals -109
Best Line Offered:  at BetOnline
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