Free MLB Picks: Bet 'Under' As Talented Pitchers Start When Marlins Visit Mets

Drew Martin

Tuesday, April 12, 2016 6:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 12, 2016 6:56 PM UTC

Marlins visit Mets where Noah Syndergaard has been absolutely dominant this season. Jose Fernandez will increase the risk of volatility for tonight’s game. Check inside for the MLB pick.

Mets Preview
Noah Syndergaard takes the hill at Citi Field tonight as he looks to snap the Mets three game skid. Syndergaard has been absolutely dominant this season, building upon the success he achieved in 2015 after being called up to the big leagues in May of last year. He will oppose Marlins' ace Jose Fernandez, who looks to bounce back from an inefficient first start to the 2016 campaign. Runs will likely be at a premium tonight in New York, especially if these two young hurlers are on their “A-game”; it will be hard for odds makers to have a MLB pick.

Jose Fernandez struck out 13 in his first start at home versus the Detroit Tigers last Wednesday, but picked up the loss after giving up five runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings. Even though he was on the wrong side of the decision, it was hardly a shoddy outing for the 23-year-old Cuban who flashed such overpowering stuff that only four of the outs he recorded were not strikeouts.

When looking at this matchup from a historical perspective, the outlook grows darker for the Mets’ offense. Fernandez has never lost to New York in four starts, logging a 1-0 record and 1.64 ERA. To make matters worse for Mets hitters, the 23 year old Cuban who grew up in Florida, has always felt very comfortable in New York.

Case in point, Fernandez has posted a 1.64 ERA with 15 strikeouts and a .906 WHIP in his two previous starts at Citi Field. The Mets were held to a microscopic team OPS of .438 by Fernandez in those two outings, and considering the fact that the Mets have posted a MLB worst team OPS of .518 over the last 7 days, there is no reason to expect the downward trend will end tonight.

Marlins Overview
On the other side, fellow 23 year old Noah Syndergaard will square off against the Marlins for the first time. He too loves Citi Field, having registered a 9-2 record with a 2.54 ERA in 14 career home starts, including two wins in last year's postseason. 

While Tommy John surgery and other injuries have limited Fernandez over the past two years, Syndergaard has had no such trouble, and is looking every bit like an emerging ace. He had nine strikeouts in six innings, and yielded only three hits in a 2-0 win at Kansas City last Tuesday, utilizing a low-90s slider that baffled the reigning World Series champions.

Syndergaard told MLB's official website, "I felt like I really took it to the next level, I kind of shocked myself with how good my slider was. It felt good in spring training, but I amped it up." Syndergaard, like Fernandez, is capable of hitting triple digits on the radar gun, and with the emergence of another elite pitch from the Mets’ hurler, it could be a long night for a Marlins lineup that finally showed signs of life last night by exploding for 10 runs in the series opening win.


Final Analysis
The Mets’ bullpen has been taxed of late, and starter Steven Matz did nothing to alleviate the burden, when he was only able to record five outs in last night’s loss. That heavy bullpen usage makes for a higher risk of volatility for tonight’s full game total. Also, New York closer Jeurys Familia was under the weather Sunday, and his availability was unclear if the Mets had a save situation.

Given the strength of the two starters, the possible question marks in the later innings of tonight’s game, and the fluctuating lines of the MLB odds boards, I recommend a wager on the under for the first five innings tonight in pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under' for the first 5 innings
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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