With June here, the sportsbooks MLB odds have settled with teams approaching the one-third post of their season. We are beginning to see what teams are shaded by oddsmakers and have to adjust.
This is part of the lure of the cat and mouse game for baseball handicappers, seeking the edge for the best value against the MLB odds in searching for winners.
Because of quite a few large favorites, the number of games is reduced, yet I still came up with my top three choices for MLB picks.
Detroit Back Home to Fire Back Up
These Tigers return home with their tails between their legs after having been swept in a four-game series in Anaheim and overall, losers of seven of nine. For the most part if Miguel Cabrera is not hitting, Detroit is not scoring and his recent slowdown has the Tigers slipping to 4.1 runs per game on the season.
This places added pressure on Alfredo Simon (5-2, 2.67 ERA) to come through for Detroit and at Comerica Park that has certainly been the case. Simon has fit right into his new surroundings and with a 0.94 ERA at home and his teammates a perfect 4-0 in his starts.
Oakland will counter with Kendall Graveman (2-2, 5.79) who has a 2.31 ERA in two starts since being recalled May 23 from Triple-A. The right-hander has made three road starts this season, all wins by the A’s and he has a sharp 1.26 ERA which could be problematic for Detroit’s slumping offense.
However since last year, Simon is 20-6 in the first half of the season (Team’s record) and the A’s off their Sunday victory over the Yankees are only 4-15 after win. With the Tigers -135 favorites at GTBets.eu, this should be a strong play for MLB picks.
MLB Pick – Detroit -131 at Pinnacle
White Sox Cool off Texas on the Road
The Texas Rangers have stormed back to be above .500 at 26-25 and become one of the best bets in baseball at +9.9 units. Tonight’s pitching matchup with Chicago brings into focus two thought processes, either go with the flow or think contrarian.
Those going with the flow will like the White Sox Jeff Samardzija (4-2, 3.84), who was 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts in May and tightened that up further with a 1.96 ERA in his past three outings. After a surprisingly good start to the season, Colby Lewis (4-3, 4.70) has been hit like a batting practice pitcher with a ginormous 11.92 ERA and WHIP over 2.00 in past three trip to the mound.
The contrarian bettor will deduct both pitches will regress to the norm, with Samardzija a little worse and Lewis definitely better. The Rangers righty has also won his past four starts against the Pale Hose with a sterling 0.92 ERA.
I will be in the camp with ‘riding the tide’ believing Samardzija can limit the Texas offense and the Sox hitters have finally started scoring at a 4.57 RPG pace in their last seven and should have good swings versus Lewis. Chicago is a -110 road fave with the total at 8.5 and Lewis and the Rangers are 4-14 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 the past couple years.
MLB Pick – Chicago -110 at The Greek
Atlanta has Substantial Pitching Edge
The Braves Shelby Miller (5-2) would be receiving more national accolades on a better team. His ERA is a ridiculous 1.48, his WHIP is plain sick at 0.88 and opposing hitters have a puny .175 batting average against him. His May ERA of 0.95 is lowest by an Atlanta starting pitcher in 41 years.
Let’s move on the Arizona’s Josh Collmenter (3-5, 5.05), who in six starts at Chase Field has a 6.30 ERA, with one win. From the bench Collmenter got a firsthand look Freddie Freeman, who had a home run and three rbi’s last night in the downtown desert and has put together a .406 average while knocking in 28 runs in 25 career meetings with Arizona. The Atlanta first baseman is even better at Chase, batting .418 with four homers and 16 rbi’s in 13 tries and against Collmenter, ‘only’ hitting .533.
With the Braves having rung 23 runs in past three contests and Miller 10-0 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 the last two seasons (Team's Record), Atlanta as a Pick is too inviting to pass up.
MLB Pick – Atlanta -105 at YouWager