Free MLB Pick: Yankees & Twins To Eclipse Total This Saturday

Jay Pryce

Saturday, June 18, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

The Yankees look to continue its mastery over the Twins in Minnesota this afternoon with Michael Pineda and Ricky Nolasco set to face off. Check out our free pick here.

New York Yankees (33-34) – Michael Pineda (3-7, 5.88 ERA)
The Yankees’ 8-2 drubbing of the Twins last night is par for the course. They dominate AL Central outfit in recent years. Since 2009, New York  is  43-13 overall, returning nearly 24 percent profit to bettors.

Its mastery is not confined to the Big Apple either with the Yankees setting a 24-5 mark at Target Field over this span, rewarding backers with nearly a 40 percent return. Fans have witnessed different organizational strategies in MLB close the gap between big money teams and smaller market clubs of late. But not in this series—at least not yet.

Skipper Joe Girardi sends out Michael Pineda to seal the deal this afternoon. The big Dominican owns just three wins on the season, with two of them coming in his last five outings where he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 28.1 innings.

The Yankees struggle on the road under his command, giving up 6.2 runs on 10.7 hits per game. He and the bullpen have allowed four or more to cross the plate in each of six away appearances.

Lifetime, Pineda is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA against the Twins. The current roster owns a .286 batting average, with Trevor Plouffe’s double the only extra base hit allowed.

The Yankees bats are waking up, producing 4.9 runs on 9.9 hits per game in June. Prior to this, they scored a paltry 3.8 runs on 7.6 knocks per contest. For the year, the roster ranks in the bottom third in MLB in most hitting categories, including an abysmal .697 OPS (25th).

As road chalk this year, New York is 9-4 SU, returning roughly 27 percent profit at -126 average MLB Odds.

 

Minnesota Twins (20-47) – Ricky Nolasco (3-4, 5.12 ERA)
The Twins are bad; no secret there. Their .299 winning percentage is lowest in MLB. Minny’s numbers are even worse when the betting market expects it to lose, going 14-41 as the underdog. The team’s negative 118 run differential is the league’s worst.

Manager Paul Molitor calls on Ricky Nolasco to stop the bleeding. Let’s be honest, the right-hander is atrocious in a Twins uniform, owning a ERA north of five runs in three-and-a-half seasons since coming over from Miami. Like Pineda, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel, as two of Nolasco’s three victories on the year have come in his last four outings.

Despite a 10-year career, Nolasco has only faced the Yankees twice, going 1-1 with a 7.88 ERA.

Nolasco and his relief have allowed four runs or more in all but one of his 13 starts this season. Since joining the Twins, the OVER is 31-15-2 behind the right-hander, 16-6-2 at Target Field.

Minnesota’s lineup is full of free-swinging sluggers, unable to get on base. The team’s 22.8 strikeout and .309 on-base percentages rank 24th in the bigs.

 

Final Analysis
Let’s not overanalyze this one. The Over looks to be the play here with all but two of Nolasco’s starts seeing nine runs or more this season. There are a slew of short-term trends backing the pick as well. The Over is 11-2 in Nolasco’s outings, with 10.6 runs a top an average 8.7 total.

Looking the other way, in Pineda’s pinstripe career, the Over is 8-2-1 when taking the pill as away chalk with a 9.6 average score eclipsing an 8.1 total. Over 8.5 (+100) is the free MLB Pick.

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Free MLB Pick:  Over 8.5 +100
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage