Free MLB Pick To Cash In On The Cubs vs. Mets Saturday Game

Jason Lake

Saturday, July 2, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 2, 2016 11:00 AM UTC

The New York Mets unloaded on the Chicago Cubs Friday night. They're back at it again Saturday at Citi Field, with the Mets pegged at +150 on the MLB odds board.

Jacob deGrom must be wondering where all those runs were when he needed them. The New York Mets trounced the Chicago Cubs (+108 away) 10-2 Friday night; that's more runs than New York scored in deGrom's previous six starts combined. Alas, we had UNDER 7.5 in our MLB picks this time around. You win some, you lose some.

Jake Arrieta doesn't lose too often, though. The reigning National League Cy Young winner has led the Cubs (51-28, +3.80 units) to 13 wins in his 16 starts, and he's due to take the mound Saturday night against the New York (42-37, 0 –7.88 units). The Mets respond with their biggest pitcher, Bartolo Colon. Size does matter, but Chicago is still a –175 road chalk on our MLB odds board as we go to press. First pitch is at 7:15 p.m. Eastern.

Colonic Irrigation
We've been down this road with Arrieta (2.77 FIP) before. We followed him in the Cubs season opener, cashing in at –135 with a 9-0 away win over the Los Angeles Angels. But we figured he was too chalky at –200 when the Cubs visited the San Francisco Giants in May. Chicago won anyway, 8-1.

We hope that hasn't stopped you from fading Arrieta. The Cubs went 4-3 in his next seven starts, dropping 3.68 betting units along the way. Some of that is on Arrieta; his BABIP went up from .203 to .242, and he's also walking 3.50 batters per nine innings this year, up from 1.89 last year. But baseball's a team sport, and while the Cubs have given Arrieta 6.88 runs per game of support (!), they only scored four runs combined in those three losses.

As for Colon (3.69 FIP), he hasn't given up more than two runs in six straight starts – not including his abbreviated appearance versus the Kansas City Royals on June 21, when he exited with a thumb injury after recording one out. People don't take Colon seriously because he's 43 years old and 285 pounds, but he's 2.11 units in the black this year on a team record of 9-6.


Fantasy Corner
We're going to fade the Cubs here, but FiveThirtyEight still projects them to win Saturday's game 61 percent of the time (which works out to –156 on our SBR Betting Odds Converter), so how about a Chicago reliever for your fantasy lineup? Lefty set-up man Travis Wood (4.12 FIP) is only owned in 2.3 percent of ESPN leagues, and he's got three wins and seven holds in 39 appearances this season. That .176 BABIP probably won't last; however, Wood didn't pitch Friday, so he should be available for this matchup. Enjoy the game, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free MLB Pick: Mets +166
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
Record: 14-13 ML, 5-2-1 Totals (+3.94 units)

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