Free Baseball Picks of the Day for Tuesday, April 18th

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Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, April 18, 2017 12:52 PM GMT

Tuesday, Apr. 18, 2017 12:52 PM GMT

It’s the 3rd time through the starting pitching rotations for most teams in the MLB, and our handicapper knows the only thing which will be consistent this early in the season is inconsistency.  

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2017 MLB Record, 19-23-1, -5.83 Units, -11.63% ROI

 

  Colorado Rockies vs L.A. Dodgers 

 

This ends up being an early home-and-home matchup between these two pitchers, with the first game ending as a 2-1 home win for the Rockies. I’m expecting a different result this time around and hoping the public takes the bait to keep the total at a reasonable level.

In the first start of the year for both of these pitchers, they basically over performed expectations by pitching under the listed total of 12 runs by nine in the rarified air of Coors Field. It was a short start for Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Dodgers, who only lasted 4.2 innings in that game and his next beating at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. What strikes me as ‘trouble’ for Ryu is his decreased fastball velocity. That in itself isn’t a death knell, but when you combine that with a 20% usage of a changeup that is only 7mph slower you will have a tendency to get touched up. Ryu has given up 3 home runs already this year over just 14.0 innings pitched.

My thesis on Kyle Freeland of the Rockies is much simpler, in that as a rookie professional baseball players will adjust to you first. That was the case last week as a poor San Diego lineup lit up Freeland for six runs over 4.2 innings. I actually had the Under in that game which cashed as the Rockies lost 6-0 with a 12-run listed total. However, one if not both of these pitchers get tagged in this game making the Over 8 runs an excellent MLB pick.

 

Free MLB Pick: Over 8Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres 

 

The Padres cashed me an Over yesterday as they hung tough with the Braves before losing in the bottom of the 9th, 5-4. Here they travel all the way across the country to come home and face the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Pitching for the Padres in this game is Jarred Cosart. The right-hander started his season in the Padres bullpen, but with Trevor Cahill and Luis Perdomo on the DL, he slots into the San Diego rotation. He started last week in Colorado and had some success throwing 4 scoreless frames. The story here is that even if Cosart does well we will likely see a bunch of the Padres bullpen, and they cannot be trusted with a 5.21 ERA coming into Monday night.

Arizona is in the midst of a ten-game road trip and the bats have cooled off a bit. They are still batting .269 off of right-handed starters coming into Monday though. They should be looking forward to facing the Padres after tough pitching matchups against the Giants and Dodgers in their previous two series.

In the end, though, I like the idea of fading a Padres team that will have spent time taking care of domestic business after returning home from a long road trip. This is an old angle not really based on statistics, but combined with a pitching edge, I think it has value. I’ll be taking Arizona at -121 on the moneyline for this game as one of my selections.

 Free MLB Pick: Arizona -121Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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