Free Baseball Picks of the Day for Sunday, June 11th

Reds pitcher Tim Adleman

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, June 11, 2017 1:48 PM GMT

Sunday, Jun. 11, 2017 1:48 PM GMT

Our expert handicapper has split his picks over the last few days. To get out of this pattern Mark Lathrop selects three underdogs who could cash with plus odds in Sunday MLB action.

  Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs

 

Colorado has won seven games in a row coming into their final game of a series with the Chicago Cubs. Our MLB handicapper thinks the odds are too steep against them as they go for the series sweep.

The Rockies are blistering hot and turn the ball over to their 8-2 rookie, Antonio Senzatela, to complete the sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Senzatela has a 3.56 ERA versus a 4.39 FIP, but his BABIP has always been on the low side, so this has been a normal occurrence for him over his career. Senzatela has already beat the Cubs in Denver this year by allowing just 2 runs over 6 innings pitched.

Jake Arrieta gets the start for the Cubs and he has not been as dominant as years past. The main reason for this is that his ground ball rate has plummeted to just 43.8% in 2017 versus 43.8% in 2016. In its place is an elevated line drive and fly ball rate. With Colorado getting extreme value on the moneyline I have no choice but to take them as one of my Sunday underdog MLB Picks.

 

Free MLB Pick: Colorado +168Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Cincinnati has been playing good baseball lately and has won 4 of 5 coming into Saturday night’s contest. On Sunday, they face a pitcher having a hard time keeping the ball in the yard.

Los Angeles starter, Hyun-Jin Ryu, is just 2-6 on the season and has had difficulty against left-handed hitters this year. He’s allowing a robust .322 average against southpaws, and a .261 BAA on the year. Ryu is also allowing an 18.4% HR/FB rate on the season and has a 4.74 FIP. Ryu is pitching average at best, which is why it is surprising that he is favored by this much as I write this.

Tim Adleman gets the start for Cincinnati, and his 4.68 FIP shows that this game should be more of a tossup than the odds say. He’s got a great .231 batting average allowed and 1.19 WHIP on the year, along with a strong advantage in HR/FB rate at 13.8%. Getting the plus odds on hand is a gift here, so I will take Cincinnati at +165 on the early moneyline as another underdog pick.

 

Free MLB Pick: Cincinnati +165Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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  Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays

 

Oakland and Tampa Bay split a double-header on Saturday, with the maligned Oakland bullpen losing a game in extra innings. Here they have one of their best pitchers on the mound – when healthy.

Jesse Hahn starts this game for the A’s, and his 2.89 FIP is indicative of how effective he can be when healthy. Hahn keeps the ball in the bark and has only given up one home run in 55.2 innings pitched on the season. He last started against the Blue Jays on June 6th where he allowed just one run in 6 innings pitched. That start came after two weeks off for the right-hander.

Hahn will face Chris Archer of the Rays who is on pace to strike out over 250 batters on the year. His 106/27 K/BB rate looks like he should have a better win-loss record than 4-4. Archer struggles as the game goes on, and when his pitch count gets above 60 he can get hit hard. Always a risk to back the A’s with their defective bullpen, but I think +172 on the moneyline is well worth it with Hahn on the mound and healthy on Sunday.

 Free MLB Pick: Oakland +172Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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