Free Baseball Picks of the Day for Monday, June 12th

Astros pitcher Joe Musgrove in action

Mark Lathrop

Monday, June 12, 2017 12:47 PM GMT

Mission accomplished for our handicapper, who was hoping to break his pattern of splitting his MLB picks by taking 3 underdogs. Now that the mechanism has been cleared, Mark Lathrop is back in the saddle for this week’s lineup of baseball action.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/9lhYzdSdYKg", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]  Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

 

Colorado just had their 7-game losing streak broken in Chicago, but our MLB handicapper feels that this team still has some magic left in them on their long road trip. Here the Rockies have a lefty on the mound against a Pittsburgh team that has struggled against them all year.

Kyle Freeland could be due for some FIP regression, with his 4.59 FIP against an ERA of 3.34 through 12 starts and 70.0 innings pitched. I’ll make the case that the regression is not going to occur in this game though, as the Pirates have only scored 3.8 runs per game off of left-handers on the year with a .218 batting average. Freeland is murder on righties away from Coors Field as well, allowing them to just bat .189 against him in 26.2 innings pitched. As long as Freeland keeps up his 57.5% ground ball rate he will be competitive in any park.

Although I would love to pick the feel-good story of Jameson Taillon here, who makes this start after missing just over a month due to his testicle surgery for cancer, the numbers don’t back it up. I think that makes me a heartless bastard, but allowing a .275 batting average against right-handers this year is something I can’t ignore. For his sake, I hope he pitches well and the Pirates’ bullpen blows it for him. I’m taking the hot Rockies on the moneyline as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

 

Free MLB Pick: Colorado +123Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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  Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

 

The Astros look to rebound in this series against the Rangers after losing to the Angels at home over the weekend. That loss has left an opportunity for line value as arguably the best team in the MLB starts the week.

Yu Darvish has run into a bit of a dinger problem over the last few weeks and has given up a home run in four starts straight. As the weather has gotten warmer Darvish has allowed a .316 SLG in April, .393 SLG in May, and .447 SLG in June. That has coincided with his fly ball rates increasing from 34% to 38.4%, to 46.7% over those same months. Darvish is running a very lucky .246 BABIP on the year so far against a .289 career average.

The Rangers better hope that Darvish goes deep into the ballgame because their bullpen carries a 6.00 ERA on the road. It’s one of the reasons I don’t care that Joe Musgrove is starting this game as an average pitcher for the Astros. Houston is 35-12 at home for +20.2 units on the year – hard to argue with those results. I’m taking the Astros on the moneyline at a reasonable -115 MLB odds.

 

Free MLB Pick: Houston -115Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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