Free Baseball Picks of the Day for Monday, April 17th

Mark Lathrop

Monday, April 17, 2017 1:38 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 17, 2017 1:38 PM UTC

SBR handicapper Mark Lathrop spotted two Monday totals lines that are sure to rise due to the pitching matchups. Get your bets in early before the lines rise against these untrustworthy pitchers.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]  Miami Marlins vs. Seattle Mariners


The Marlins travel across the country on Sunday evening to take on the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on Monday night. It will be “Ichiro Bobblehead Night” in the stadium, as M’s fans welcome back the Japanese star for the first time after reaching 3,000 hits.

Coming into an American League stadium will be a boon for the Marlins, as they will be able to take advantage of the designated hitter to start Ichiro Suzuki – while keeping Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The Marlins should be able to field a lineup that will give Seattle starter Ariel Miranda fits, as he has struggled against left-handed batters so far in his career. In addition to Ichiro the Marlins will be able to put lefties 1B Justin Bour, 3B Derek Dietrich, 2B Dee Gordon, CF Christian Yellich, and SS JT Riddle into the lineup. That will leave outfielders Stanton and Ozuna, and whatever catcher the Marlins decide to start as the only right-handers left to face Miranda. The young Cuban pitcher for Seattle has posted a career .347 batting average against lefties so far in his young career, albeit over just 11.2 innings pitched. Compare that to an excellent .203 BAA against right-handers.

Starting for the Marlins will be Tom Koehler, who has a 3.27 ERA but has also given up 3 dingers in just 11 innings pitched. His .194 BABIP is almost 100 points over his career average, so I’m expecting regression for him soon. Either way, this doesn’t look like a pitching duel in the making so I am taking 'Over' the relatively reasonable of 8 for my MLB pick.


Free MLB Pick: Over 8Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140902, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,1096,92,1275], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


   San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves


The “Fade Jered Weaver Train” continues in Atlanta on Monday, as the 34-year old right-hander brings his 83.5 mph fastball against the young lineup of the Braves. He matches up with Jaime Garcia who is starting his first season with a rebuilding Atlanta team.

The fact that this total opened up at 8.5 could be a short-lived affair, as both of these pitchers are untrustworthy and one if not both have the ability to put up a stinker. Weaver’s mere existence on an MLB roster is dumbfounding, and his early 4.91 ERA is much worse than it looks. He’s only been able to put up that mark with some amazing luck, such as a .133 BABIP and 93.8% strand rate. Both of those numbers are expected to crash hard in a bad way for Weaver, and there is no reason to stop fading this pitcher now.

Unfortunately for the Braves’ starter, Jaime Garcia, his early 5.73 ERA is well deserved. He’s already given up 3 home runs in just 11 innings pitched, and his early 28.6% line drive rate indicates that batters are not fooled and are squaring up the former Cardinal. Both of these pitchers should give up runs, so I am taking Over 8.5 before this line moves.


Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141293, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,1096,93,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here