Free Baseball Picks: CH Cubs vs L.A. Dodgers May 28th

Jay Pryce

Sunday, May 28, 2017 1:03 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 28, 2017 1:03 PM UTC

A pair of aces duel in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon (4:10 p.m. ET) when the Cubs' Jon Lester squares off against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Betting preview and pick here.

Chicago Cubs (25-23)

The Cubs are the first reigning World Series champions in 100 years to sustain back-to-back shutouts with fewer than three hits in each contest following a 5-0 loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. The night before, Los Angeles’ Alex Wood topped Jake Arrieta 4-0. Chicago, the 10th best scoring team in MLB, is due for some runs Sunday, right? Under normal circumstances, yes, but it squares off against Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher in the bigs. Good luck.

Team ace Jon Lester commands the hill for manager Joe Maddon. The veteran southpaw is 3-2 with 64 strikeouts, 21 walks, and a 3.19 ERA through 10 starts. Lester is 2-2 with a 2.82 ERA in six outings against the Dodgers all-time. All but one start occurred in a Cubs uniform. L.A.’s current roster is hitting a combined .203 against going 25-for-123. Franklin Gutierrez has shown the most pop, slugging two home runs out of 6 hits in 25 at-bats.

The UNDER has been the play when Lester goes off a road dog in his career. It is 35-13-6, returning nearly 35 percent to bettors. Most came in his tenure with the Red Sox, but eight outings are with the Cubs (4-2-2). Overall, Lester and the bullpen are allowing 3.37 runs per game, supported by 3.81. The average total is 8.1. As a Cub, Lester is backed by 2.0 runs per game. The team is 2-6 SU, losing the last four straight.

 Los Angeles Dodgers (30-20)

Los Angeles, the pre-season NL West favorite, is remarkable at Dodger Stadium. Since last year’s All-Star break, not including the playoffs, the club is 43-18 SU, returning 11 percent profit to bettors. It is delivering the first pitch at -185 odds on average. In 2017, the Dodgers are 20-8 SU at home, going off the betting favorite in each. Their 2.4 average margin of victory in this spot is the highest in the bigs. L.A.’s division rivals the Diamondbacks are the only MLB team with more home victories (21).

Oddsmakers expect the Dodgers to equal Arizona’s win mark with Kershaw taking the pill. The tree-time NL Cy Young winner opened a -195 favorite but has been bet down to -165 as of publication. L.A. has lost just one of Kershaw’s outings at Dodger Stadium dating back to April 2016. The only blemish was a 4-3 defeat two starts back against San Francisco; Kershaw allowed 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 6.0 innings.

Kershaw is 7-2 with 72 strikeouts. 8 walks and a 2.01 ERA in 10 starts this season. Lifetime, he is 5-3 with a 2.18 ERA in eight appearances against the Cubs. The current roster is just 20-for-128 all-time with Anthony Rizzo (5-for-16) the only hitter out of eight with more than 5 plate appearances owning a batting average greater than .190.

Like Lester, the UNDER is the play when Kershaw takes the mound at Dodger Stadium as a home favorite less than -200 on the board. The record is 47-29-3 in this spot, returning 17 percent profit to backers.


CH Cubs vs L.A. Dodgers  

Lester will show up big, and there is certainly value at plus-money backing the Cubs. Bettors are playing with fire fading Kershaw at home, or anywhere else for that matter. This game has 3-2 written all over it. Under is the MLB pick on this one.


Free MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (-125)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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