Four Players Looking to Spoil Trout's Odds as MVP Winner

Charles Stark

Thursday, July 16, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

We're looking strictly at value in proportion to who might actually win. So although Mike Trout is by far the strongest candidate to win, let's take a look at the other guys with an outside shot.

American League MVP
This is the year of the pitcher so we have to just take a glance at who could simply win the award from the American League. Chris Sale is at +3300 which actually would be great  MLB odds if the White Sox were even close to contention, but they aren't so end of story with him. He is only the real viable option on the mound but there are better chances that this might happen in the National League than the American, check my NL MVP article. Outside of Trout there are four guys according to the odds that have an outside shot of winning the award and they are Jason Kipnis at +800, Prince Fielder at +900, Josh Donaldson at +1200, and Miguel Cabrera at +1200. The award doesn't always have to go to a guy on a team that either win the pennant or the World Series so there is some good value on these guys. In fact since 2000 only three guys have won the MVP award and won the pennant, Miguel Cabrera 2012 Detroit, Josh Hamilton 2010 Texas, and Alex Rodriguez 2003 Yankees.

Click here to find out which NL pitcher you should pick as MVP winner

Jason Kipnis:  Extremely good baseball player and has the third highest WAR in the league at 4.7. Even without his power numbers he's a decent candidate and if he has a scorching second half this might be some okay value. Still, since 2000 the only two MVP players to lack home run power was Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 (.350 and 56 SB's), and Dustin Pedroia in 2008, and with Pedroia they were in the AL championship, an unlikely occurrence for the Tribe .

 

Prince Fielder: Had a great All-Star game and a resurgent year also he is second in the league in batting average and third in OPS. Surprisingly though, he is lacking a little bit of the home runs necessary to win the award. Unfortunately at the DH position unless your name is Cabrera and you win the Triple Crown it is unlikely Fielder has an actual shot at winning this.

 

Josh Donaldson: He is 17th in the league in batting average which is really the only negative thing against him. He is eighth in OPS and fourth in WAR. Also, he is third in RBI's, and fifth in home runs. Except for the average all these other numbers are very solid and he arguably made the best play in the American League this year with a dive into the stands. Another positive for him is that the Blue Jays are in the hunt and with a good second half have a somewhat realistic shot at winning the pennant. Fielding wise he is ranked 13th in the league which is not too bad, and not too important. With a hot second half he has an outside shot.

 

Miguel Cabrera: His injury is going to keep him out of the race because he most likely will be out until the end of August at best. He leads the American League in batting average and OPS so my advice is if you really want to take him go ahead and do it and hope for a speedy recovery.

MLB Pick: Josh Donaldson (but realistically barring injury this is all Mike Trout) at Paddypower