Our MLB handicapper spots a great setup to fade the public tonight in San Francisco. Read below for his breakdown of the pitching matchup and how to spot the sharp side while making your MLB Pick.
The hot San Francisco Giants host their cross-bay rivals on tonight as the Oakland Athletics come in for a weekend series at AT&T Park.
So far this year, these two teams have been riding the BART in different directions. San Francisco has won 8 of their last 10 games and at 51-44 are three games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Oakland Athletics are in the cellar of the AL West and have already started dealing rental players to other teams. Scott Kazmir was the first to go to the Astros this week. This game opened with the home team Giants favored on the money line at -131 at Pinnacle, but that line has been steadily moving towards Oakland overnight and now sits at just -111 at that same book. The O/U total is currently listed at 7 at multiple books, and like the money line, saw a 20 cent swing towards to Over at Pinnacle.
Oakland Athletics starter Jesse Chavez has been a bright spot for the A’s this year. Although he owns just a 5-9 record, he has compiled a 3.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and .248 BAA over 106.2 IP and 16 starts. He’s coming off of a fantastic start in Minnesota where he pitched six innings of three hit ball while striking out nine in route to a 14-1 Oakland smacking of the Minnesota Twins. That game continued a streak of seven that Chavez started which ended up scoring a combined 8 runs or more. It was the second game of the season against the Twins that he didn’t give up a run – the other two teams he hasn’t given up a run to are the Yankees and Tigers, both good lineups. This could be in part because of Chavez’s severe splits against RH and LH batters. Against right-handers, Chavez is Clayton Kershaw, with a .212 BAA, .227 SLGA, and .275 OBPA. Chavez is below average against left-handers, with a .279 BAA, .418 SLGA, and .315 OBPA. This split could neutralize the effectiveness of Buster Posey and Hunter Pence at the dish tonight.
San Francisco veteran, Jake Peavy, won his first game of his injury shortened season his last time out; even though he gave up a few dingers and 4 ER on 8 hits against the lowly Diamondbacks. The fourteen year veteran surprisingly only has three starts in his career against the Athletics, going 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .197 BAA over 21.1 IP. The caveat with those stats is the lineup he will see tonight is most assuredly drastically different than those A’s lineups from the past. All told, Peavy just has to be glad that he has made it into the seventh inning in his last three starts since coming back from injury.
The MLB Pick
This game features one of my favorite wagering setups, as the line is moving against public consensus. This is a great indicator of sharp action on the opposite side of the public. My sources show 86% of the public supporting the Giants on the money line. The SBR odds page shows consensus on the Giants at 57% at time of writing. Regardless of this, we have that money line move of 20 cents in favor of the Athletics. I’m following the sharps again in this one and taking Oakland on the money line as my MLB pick.
MLB Pick: Oakland +107 at Heritage