Follow Rockies 66% Under Trend on Sunday's Clash With Giants

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, April 23, 2017 3:40 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 23, 2017 3:40 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper spots a team cashing over 66% of Unders this season, and the unexpecting public is pushing a total sky high in Mile High in a Sunday match up at Coors Field. Here he explains why you shouldn't follow the herd.

The Colorado Rockies look to continue their hot start on Sunday afternoon when they finish up their 5-game home stand and series with the San Francisco Giants. Jeff Samardzija gets the start in this game for the Giants, while Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies. Initial odds out on Saturday have a relatively even match up predicted, with a slight lean towards the Giants at -109 at Heritage. The Over/Under line is seeing the most movement, and after opening at 11 has shifted upwards to 11.5 at books such as BetDSI.

Samardzija gets his second start in a row against Colorado, with his last start coming last Sunday at home in San Francisco. Jeff gave up 4 runs over 7 innings of work and lost his 3rd decision in a row with a 4-3 final score. He’s running a slightly higher BABIP than normal at .347, but is also allowing more home runs than normal as well. Home runs actually do not effect BABIP as the ball is not ‘in play’. Without his first start of the season though, an anomaly in which he gave up 3 home runs to the Diamondbacks, those home run numbers are pretty normal. What Samardzija has been excellent in so far is strikeouts. He’s struck out 25 batters already over 19 innings pitched and is running a career high 11.37 K/9 rate. He struck out 8 batters in his last start against Colorado and did not walk a batter.

Kyle Freeland starts for the Rockies, and he has faced the Dodgers twice and the Padres in between. The Padres start sticks out in that he gave up 6 runs over 4.2 innings, while he limited the Dodgers to one run in each of his other two starts. Walks have been an issue for Freeland, as he has given up 9 walks over 14.2 innings pitched. Those walks have brought up his pitch count leading him to be pulled quickly from his last two games. The former 8th overall draft pick has a perfect arsenal for pitching in Coors Field though, namely a very high ground ball rate and excellent 4 to 1 ground ball to fly ball ratio.

Lastly, there are some excellent trends here regarding the O/U total that will allow us to fade the public reaction to the totals line of 11.5. All of Freeland’s starts have gone Under the total, while Samardzija has cashed the Under in his last two and in 7 of his 8 matchups with the Rockies in his career. Samardzija carries a career 2.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against the Rockies in this game as well, while Freeland gets his first chance against the offensively challenged Giants. The value here, even at altitude, is to take the Under of 11.5 runs at Heritage as one of your Sunday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Under 11.5Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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