Focus on Run Line Underdog for Nationals vs. Giants MLB Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, October 7, 2014 5:59 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 5:59 PM UTC

We are placing our MLB pick today on the run line due, in part, to Gonzalez pitching for the Washington Nationals in far better current form and having far stronger history than that of Vogelsong.

Washington (-1 ½ R, +130)
As commanded by this bureau, Washington staved off elimination as our underdog winner last night with a 4-1 victory from this mound.  In so doing, the Nationals snapped the 5 game winning streak of the Giants along with ending San Fran’s winning streak of 10 consecutive post-season games, dating to their World Series title in 2012.  My strong opinion today is that Washington lives to fight another day in consecutive elimination games. 

With a road record of 45-36, the Nats have proven their road ability.  In fact, that road record matches the 45-36 home mark of the Giants.  Keep in mind that record was once a lofty 23-9 on this field, meaning the Giants have gone 22-27 at home in the last 2/3 of the season.  In a game where each of today’s starters is making his first post-season appearance of 2014, as starter, I feel we have far the better of it on the mound. 

Gonzalez enters in great current form.  The Nats have won each of his previous 2 starts, in which Gonzalez worked 14 IP allowing just 2 runs on only 7 hits with a dominating 17/2 KBB.  A strong history against San Francisco shows that in 7 Gonzalez starts, he has worked 41 2/3 IP with a 2.59 ERA.  His solid work on the road is remarkably similar to his YTD numbers.  In 14 road starts, Gonzalez has worked 86 2/3 IP with a decent 3.63 ERA.  In great current form with solid history, I like his chances to pitch well in today’s start.

Keep in mind before placing your MLB picks that San Francisco’s starter, Vogelsong, is far less reliable.  The Giants have lost each of 3 previous Vogelsong starts.  In those outings, he lasted just 16 IP, allowing 12 runs on 16 hits.  A shaky history for Vogelsong against Washington will do nothing to instill confidence.  In 30 2/3 IP of work, Vogelsong has a 6.16 ERA vs. the Nats with a 1.63 WHIP.  You will remember that in an earlier article this season, I proved that it was a notable negative for any starter, in a given situation, who had a WHIP of 1.60 or higher. 

Run line players will suit up with confidence, knowing that 38 of 46 Washington road victories (83%) have come by 2 or more runs. That works hand in glove with the fact that 28 of 37 (76%) San Francisco home losses have come by 2 or more runs.

Free MLB Pick: Play this game at an underdog price on the run line at YouWager with solid confidence.    

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