Finding Betting Value In White Sox & Gonzalez vs Red Sox & Wright

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, June 20, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 20, 2016 3:00 PM UTC

The White Sox and Red Sox is a matchup of M. Gonzalez vs. S. Wright. This is a total OPS mismatch across the board in batting, pitching, and relief; both YTD and home vs. away.

I noticed in early May that the White Sox’ 23-10 record was clearly outperforming their OPS batting numbers. It was surely a sell sign against a team that started the year 23-10 and was again projected by the experts to have another losing season. True to my projections, the White Sox have since gone 10-26.

They come off a 3-game sweep at the hands of Cleveland losing a pair of 1 run contests by a score of 3-2, sandwiched around a brutal beating on Saturday by a count of 13-2 (Shields clearly NOT the answer for the struggling bottom of the White Sox’ rotation.) In the meantime, the once sterling CWS bullpen which was as high as Top 5 in early May has plummeted to the middle of the pack with a .706 OPS.

Gonzalez was inserted into the rotation just about the time the White Sox began their swoon. For the year, he is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and .794 OPS. His previous outing was among his worst, as in 3 1/3 IP, he allowed 7 runs to Detroit. That is in great contrast to the surprising start of Red Sox’ hurler, S. Wright, who has bolted himself to the top of the rotation as the Red Sox’ ace.

For the YTD, Wright is 8-4 with a 2.22 ERA and .570 OPS. Even at home, in the Fenway bandbox, that OPS is an outstanding .620. He has gotten even better in recent starts, where he is 5-0 in 35 2/3 IP, allowing just 7 ER with a 1.77 ERA. But, it is the OPS batting difference which is the clear edge in this contest.

For the YTD, the Red Sox have a .836 OPS which leads MLB. At home, it is even greater at .856. That is in stark contrast to the White Sox numbers of .698 OPS, including .688 on the road.

With huge edges across the board in batting pitching and relief, we can only look to the Red Sox for our MLB Pick. No problem laying the runs with this low juice on the MLB Odds, knowing that 33 of 39 Boston wins (that’s 85%) have been by 2 or more runs. 

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Free MLB Pick:  Red Sox -1½ -110
Best Line Offered:  at BetOnline

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