Finding Betting Value in Phillies vs. Nationals Game 2

Darin Zank

Friday, August 1, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 1, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

Philly jumped out to a lead in this series with a 10-4 victory Thursday night, making a mess of our free MLB pick. We and Washington will try to do better when Game 2 of this series rolls around Friday night (7:05 pm ET).

Friday's Betting Odds
Most books we shopped Friday morning opened Washington and Doug Fister at a heavy -220 or so over Philly and Roberto Hernandez, then bumped the Nats another dime, to the -230 range. And most books were listing the total on Friday's game at 7.5 runs.

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Thursday Re-Hash
Philly broke a scoreless tie with five runs in the fourth inning Thursday night, then put the game away with a three-run eighth, for a 10-4 victory. The Phillies won as +155 dogs on the MLB betting odds board, and the game played 'over' its total of seven runs.

Philadelphia starter Cliff Lee left the game in the third inning because of soreness in his left elbow, and his status for the rest of this season is now in question. The Philly bullpen then gave up four runs over the last 6 1/3 innings, but much of that came in garbage time.

We liked Washington Thursday, and backed the Nats on the run line for our free MLB pick. So while we lost, we saved ourselves $65.

Washington made a deadline trade Thursday, acquiring IF Asdrubal Cabrera from Cleveland.


Friday's Starters
Fister (10-2, 2.69) is 9/14 on quality starts this year, and one out away from going four for his last four. Last time out he held Cincinnati scoreless on three hits through seven innings, and over his last four starts he's allowed seven runs through 26 2/3 innings.

For the season Fister has allowed 87 hits in 90 innings, walked just 11 and struck out 54. Washington is 11-3 in Fister's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'unders' by a 9-4 margin.

Since the beginning of last season, when he was with Detroit, Fister has started twice against Philadelphia, allowing two ER and seven hits through 15 innings; his teams won both those games, and both games stayed 'under' their totals.

Hernandez (5-8, 4.14) is 7/19 on quality starts, and two for his last three. Most recently he held Arizona to two runs through seven innings, and over his last three starts he's given up six runs through 20 2/3 innings.

On the season Hernandez has allowed 103 hits in 113 innings, but his K/BB ratio stinks, at 72/54. The Phillies are 8-11 in games Hernandez has started, with the totals going 10-8.

Hernandez has started once earlier this year against the Nationals, tossing 7 1/3 scoreless innings of a 1-0 Philly victory back in May.


Free Pick for Friday
We like Fister in the pitching match-up, but that price is ridiculous. So we'll take another chance and go with the Nats on the run line, at the -105 offered at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick on Friday's contest.

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