Finding the Angle in Padres vs. D'backs MLB Pick

Darin Zank

Sunday, September 14, 2014 1:49 PM GMT

NL West also-rans finish off a three-game series as San Diego and Arizona meet Sunday in Phoenix. This game might not mean much in the big scheme of things, but might there be a good angle for a free MLB pick?

The Betting Odds
As of Sunday AM the best line we could find on Arizona with Trevor Cahill was the -114 offered at Heritage, while San Diego and Odrisamer Despaigne could be found at +110 at 5Dimes

 

Game Set-Up
Arizona snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 10-4 victory Sunday, evening this series at a game apiece. San Diego had taken Game 1 Friday night 6-5.

Before scoring 10 runs Saturday the Diamondbacks had been held to a total of 13 runs over their previous seven games.

The Padres, meanwhile, haven't won a series since taking two of three games from the Dodgers at the end of last month.

San Diego, at 68-79, and Arizona, at 60-88, have both been playing out the string on this season for a while now.

Arizona leads this season series 11 games to seven, with the totals going 7-10-1.

 

Sunday's Starters
Cahill (3-11, 5.23) is 5/14 on quality starts this season, 0 for his last three. Most recently he gave up three runs, while walking four, in 5 2/3 innings against the Dodgers, and over his last three starts he's given up 14 runs through 13 innings.

For the season Cahill has allowed 102 hits through 96 innings, walked 50, which is way too many, and struck out 87. San Diego is 4-10 in Cahill's starts, with the totals going 7-6.

Over the last season-plus Cahill has started three times against the Padres, allowing seven runs and 15 hits through 15 1/3 innings; the D'Backs lost all three of those games, by scores of 2-1, 3-2, and 3-1.

Despaigne (3-6, 3.55) is 8/14 on quality starts, and two for his last three. Last time out he gave up six ER in less than five innings against the Dodgers, but in his two starts previous to that he held the Brewers and these Diamondbacks to two ER through 14 innings.

On the season the kid from Havana has allowed 77 hits in 84 innings, walked 28 and struck out 57. San Diego is 7-7 in games he's started, with the totals going 6-9.

Despaigne has started three times against Arizona this season, allowing five ER and 14 hits through 18 2/3 innings; the Padres won two of those games, and all three games stayed under the totals.

Pads-D'Backs Betting Trends
San Diego has skewed toward the 'unders' this season by a lopsided 54-88 margin.

Injury Update
Arizona is 12-26 since losing slugger Paul Goldschmidt for the season to a broken hand. San Diego, meanwhile, has been banged up all year, and is probably at the moment playing without three for four guys who would normally be in the everyday lineup.

Free MLB Pick
This game doesn't mean much, but we liked what we were seeing out of the Padres a few weeks ago, when they were playing some decent ball. Arizona, meanwhile, isn't the same team since losing Goldschmidt, and they weren't too good when they had him. So we'll go with San Diego for our free MLB pick on Sunday's series finale. 

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