Few Runs Predicted In Orioles vs Rays Game

Saturday, July 16, 2016 3:02 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 16, 2016 3:02 PM UTC

Looking at the way Chris Tillman pitched against Tampa Bay the last time he faced them you would think odds makers would set this total decently high.

However, MLB odds makers have come out with a pretty standard total for this American League matchup so we are going to take a closer look at this game that has my radar up.

The MLB odds actually moved since I started breaking this game down from 8.5 to 8 on the total line. At some places you can find it still at 8.5 with some decent juice on it or at 8 like at Pinnacle Sports -107. Since we don't like to pay high juice if we don't have to I like the number 8 in this spot for my MLB pick ​to back under the total. Try and find the best value that you can.


Baltimore Orioles
Chris Tillman gets the start for Baltimore with a solid 3.41 ERA and 1.23 whip the first half of the season with Baltimore hitting .272 which ranks fourth in the major leagues.  Tillman comes in to this game off of two really solid starts allowing one earned run in each off of eight total hits in 14 innings.

However, last time he faced Tampa Bay he got thumped for six earned runs off of 10 hits in just five innings which really makes me curious about why this total isn't a bit higher. It starts to make a little bit more sense when we consider the fact that was his worst outing in his last 10 games so this puts him in a good bounce back spot to have a quality start.

Also, that game was a bit of an anomaly as the two other times he faced Tampa Bay this year he allowed a total of one earned run in about 12 innings of work. Baltimore is one of the better hitting teams this season and they rank in the top of the major leagues in home runs per game and second in OPS. As mentioned, they rank fourth in batting average but when facing lefties this year that average drops to .246 which is second to last in the American League.


Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Moore takes the mound for Tampa Bay and comes in with a 4.46 ERA and 1.33 whip with the Rays hitting .240 as a team which ranks 27th in the major leagues. Across the board offensively Tampa Bay has ranked as one of the worst hitting teams in baseball this season ranking in the bottom part of the league in runs, hits, and strikeouts per game.

What jumps out at me even more is the fact is that their really poor batting average actually drops versus right-handers to .230 which ranks last in the American League. I don't expect this offense to have a repeat performance of the last time they faced Tillman. Moore has gotten knocked around against Baltimore this season allowing eight earned runs in just under 14 innings.

However, that damage was mostly done in Baltimore and the last time he faced this team at home he pitched very well allowing three earned runs off of just three hits in seven innings. Since that tough outing in Baltimore he has pitched three solid games in a row allowing just four earned runs in just under 20 innings pitched with two of those games facing the league's best hitting team in Boston once there and once at home.

Free MLB Pick:  Rays Under 8 -107
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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