MLB Futures: World Series Market Moving Slowly on Fernando Tatis Jr. Injury News

We look into how the MLB futures market has been affected by the recent news surrounding Fernando Tatis Jr.

Major League Baseball is in the early days of Spring Training and there has already been massive injury news. San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a broken wrist in the offseason and could be out for up to three months. With such a high-profile player going down so early, it allows for an opportunity to exploit the market if you know what to look for.

We'll examine how the injury to Tatis Jr. affects numerous MLB futures markets, including the National League MVP and World Series.

San Diego Padres Market

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The MLB regular season starts in a little more than three weeks on April 7. That would mean Tatis Jr. missing at least two months and possibly more of regular season play. That would cost him in the neighborhood of 50 games.

In 2021, Fernando Tatis Jr. missed time with shoulder injuries and a stint on the COVID-19 list but was still wildly productive when he was in the lineup, slashing .282/.364/.611 with 42 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 130 games, earning a 6.1 fWAR. As great as Tatis Jr. is, the cost of him missing about 50 games would be almost 2.5 fWAR. It is significant from an individual player perspective, but not enormous from a team point of view.

In Tatis Jr.’s absence, the Padres can turn to some combination of Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jurickson Profar to fill their middle infield spots.

Cronenworth is the usual starter for San Diego but has played some at short. Profar has been a utility player who has not played shortstop recently but could backfill at second base. Kim was underwhelming as a rookie, but the 26-year-old is at least a quality defensive option at shortstop. While this is hardly an ideal situation, the takeaway is that the Padres should be able to stay competitive in Tatis Jr.’s absence.

Before news of Tatis Jr.’s injury, the San Diego Padres were priced between +1200 and +1600 to win the World Series. There has been some early movement on DraftKings Sportsbook to +1300 but other sportsbooks have held steady.

Recommendation

The Padres might be a potential value play if the World Series or division odds increase. But, right now, the lack of movement in those markets is not encouraging. A team losing its best player for more than two months might be expected to create some movement but that was not the immediate impact.

If you're interested in focusing on the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers are favored at -165 on DraftKings after opening the day at -135, as the Padres are considered their second-best competition in the division.

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SEE ALSO: World Series Odds and Picks

NL MVP Market

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Tatis Jr. was a co-favorite with Juan Soto for National League MVP, both priced at +350 on DraftKings. Soto is now the lone favorite.

Odds for Fernando Tatis Jr. have since climbed to +1000. That is the fifth-lowest odds in the NL, but that seems very optimistic. Tatis Jr. would have to return quickly from this injury and then have a monster season while coming off a broken wrist. It’s not impossible, but there is very little room for error. One more injury or extended slump and it would be incredibly difficult to win the MVP. He finished third last season, behind Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, while playing 130 games. How impossibly great would Tatis Jr. need to be in order to win the MVP while playing, say, 120 games or less?

History suggests it would be almost impossible.

Say what you will about whether voters reward the correct MVP in a given year, there is a tendency to reward the production of players that have played in most of their team’s games with a handful of rare exceptions.

In 2003, Barry Bonds won his third straight NL MVP while playing in 130 games. Barry Larkin won the award while playing 131 games in 1995.

In the American League, George Brett won the AL MVP while playing in 117 games in 1980, and Mickey Mantle won while playing in 123 games in 1962. Josh Hamilton played 133 games while winning in 2010, and Mike Trout appeared in 134 games while taking the award in 2019.

Recommendation

Any futures pick on Fernando Tatis Jr. to win NL MVP is going to be almost entirely dependent on him returning to action sooner than the potential three-month absence cited by Padres team president A.J. Preller. If Tatis Jr. misses 50 games, it would require him to have incredible production in the games in which he appeared and it would also require other top contenders to run into their own problems (injuries, slumps, etc.) to open the door. At this point, then, there is little justification to take Tatis Jr. at +1000 for NL MVP until there is at least some kind of hint that he might return to the lineup sooner than the initial expectations.

SEE ALSO: MVP Odds Move with Tatis Jr. Injury

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