Fenway Will be Hosting a Pitching Clinic Today when Perez & Wright Face Off

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, July 6, 2016 12:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 6, 2016 12:55 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper looks at the rubber match between Texas and Boston and spots a situation that should bring wagering value to the table for your Wednesday MLB beting card.

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox attempt to keep bringing the Texas Rangers back to earth on Wednesday night, as they play the last game of their three-game series in Boston. Let’s take a look at the early MLB odds that are out even before their game on Tuesday finishes up. With excellent Steven Wright on the mound for Boston, and them being at home, the Red Sox have opened at -180 money line favorites at BookMaker. The O/U total is elevated, and can be found at 10.5 runs across the board.

The Rangers won last night to even up this series at a game apiece. Even though Texas won, they burned through 5 relievers to do so. David Price took the loss for Boston even though he went 8 innings while giving up 3 earned runs. Boston’s bullpen should have an advantage due to rest in this game.

Starting for the Texas Rangers is Martin Perez, who is finally seeing some success again after having Tommy John surgery after the 2014 season. On the year, Perez has posted a 7-4 record, 3.39 ERA, 51/44 K/BB rate, 1.37 WHIP, and .253 batting average allowed. Perez is an absolute nightmare for left-handed hitters, and thus rarely sees them. On the year lefties are hitting just .137 off of Perez in 22.2 innings pitched, while righties are batting .280 over 81.0 innings.  

Like most of the success of the Rangers over this season, Perez has been highly dependent on luck. This is evident in his fielding independent pitching average, which sits at 4.77, much higher than his ERA of 3.39. His walk and strikeout rates should also start getting him into trouble sooner rather than later, especially against an offense as powerful as Boston’s.



Boston starter Steven Wright has to be the best pitcher making league minimum salary in the MLB. On the year, Wright has posted a 9-5 record, 2.42 ERA, 87/42 K/BB rate, 1.19 WHIP, and .216 batting average allowed. He has been very successful at keeping the ball in the yard and runs a 6.0% HR/FB rate. A lot of that is due to the fact that his knuckleball induces weak contact, and with a great defense behind him, the rest takes care of itself.

Wright recently had a rough start against the Rangers on June 25th where he gave up 8 runs, but only 3 earned. He was the victim of some uncharacteristically poor defense and some passed balls, and like most of the season, Texas was able to take advantage of the errors.  He’ll look to pay back the Rangers for that bad start here and pick up his 10th win of the season.

There are some strong trends coming into this game that should hold in this situation. Both pitchers are holding trends to the Under, with Martin Perez 6-10 O-U on the year and Steven Wright 6-8, respectively. Games played in Boston between these two teams over the last three seasons have cashed on the Under at a 6-2 clip. Last night’s score of 7-2 barely cashed on the Under posted of 9.5.

At 10.5 at some books, I believe this O/U line is inflated because of the absolute crazy-pants scoring that occurred over the weekend in Boston’s series versus the Angels. The Angel’s pitching staff is terrible and the recent trends that these numbers are creating for Boston are a little flawed. I’m taking advantage of this high line with at least one pitcher that I trust, Steven Wright, as I believe it has superior value over the steep money line favoring Boston. Take Under as your Wednesday MLB Pick.


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Free MLB Pick: Under 10.5 at -115
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
MLB 2016 Record: 33-19-3, +13.32 Units

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