Familiarity Pushes the Dodgers & Padres to Go Over

Charles Stark

Saturday, May 6, 2017 4:41 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 6, 2017 4:41 PM UTC

Familiar foes face each other today. Both starting pitchers today have already faced their opponent once this season with Brandon McCarthy getting the start for the Dodgers and Clayton Richard taking the mound for the Padres. We are going to take a look at the total and see if there is any value on the over or the under.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Over the past couple of seasons Brandon McCarthy has been a nice surprise for the Los Angeles Dodgers and he comes into this contest with a solid 3.10 ERA and 1.21 whip. Earlier in the season he was excellent against San Diego allowing just two earned runs over six innings but I think familiarity might actually not be a positive thing for him today. His numbers in Petco Park are not bad over the past three seasons but against San Diego in general he has been less than stellar with a 4.79 ERA in six appearances with the Padres hitting .261 against him garnering 36 hits in the 35 innings they have faced him. At the plate the Dodgers have been one of the more hot and cold teams this season but their statistics across the board are not bad ranking around the middle the league in most categories highlighted by a .330 on base percentage good for 11th in the major leagues. Although they didn’t have much success against San Diego’s starter today in their first opportunity I believe they have enough in the lineup to put together some solid at bats.


San Diego Padres

Clayton Richard takes the mound for San Diego and comes in with a 4.29 ERA and 1.49 whip, and like McCarthy, has one appearance against his opponent today and was stellar allowing zero earned runs in eight innings earlier this season against the Dodgers. However, I believe familiarity will not be favorable to him today against a decent Dodgers lineup that is good at working the count and getting on base. At the plate the Padres are one of the poorer hitting teams in all of baseball and there just is not a lot to like throughout the lineup. They rank in the bottom part of the league in most categories but they do have a little bit of pop ranking ninth in home runs per game and they always seem to get up a little bit extra when facing the Dodgers. Although I don’t expect an offensive onslaught I do believe this number is just a touch too low in this game with both these pitchers having faced both these teams already once the season.


MLB Odds

Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 6.5 which makes some sense considering the overall statistics, but for my MLB pick I’m going to back over this total. Look for the fact that these two teams have already had a good look at the two guys on the mound today and for both of them to have quality at-bats.

Free MLB Pick: Over 6.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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