Fade-Worthy Padres Starter Jered Weaver Even Worse at Petco Park

Mark Lathrop

Friday, May 19, 2017 2:37 PM UTC

Friday, May. 19, 2017 2:37 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper has been fading Jered Weaver and the Padres in every one of his starts, just to be awarded with a perfect 8-0 moneyline record. Here Mark Lathrop suggests staying on that train until it comes off the tracks.

2017 MLB Record: 67-61-4 (-1.72 Units, -1.13% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks At San Diego Padres

It’s my favorite day of the week, and if you’ve been following me this year in MLB coverage you know what it is. It’s Jered Weaver Day! The Padres are an imperfect 0-8 in Weaver's starts this year, and a home date with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday has me looking for a 9th loss. Somewhat incredulously, the moneyline odds still hold some value for Weaver faders, as the Diamondbacks can be found at just -133 on the moneyline at BetOnline as of Thursday afternoon. That line is likely to shift towards Arizona, with some books already starting to shade that way.

To his credit, Weaver somehow danced through a decent outing his last time out at the Chicago White Sox. He had a threat against him in nearly every inning and was the beneficiary of two double plays. The game also broke a string of four straight in which Weaver had given up multiple home runs, included an April 27 game against Arizona that saw the Diamondbacks go yard 3 times against the soft-tosser. His HR/9 rate currently sits at an incredible 3.02 – incredible that he still has a job, that is.

Starting against Weaver in this matchup is Taijuan Walker, who has pitched very consistently for the Diamondbacks this year. It was common for Walker to show flashes of brilliance in Seattle and every once in a while get blasted. He’s given up less than 4 earned runs in all but 6 of his 8 starts in 2017, and in the two starts he gave up 4 earned runs he has a nice 13/2 K/BB rate. As you can imagine, the other side of that is an elevated BABIP on the season of .314. That is partially responsible for the variance in his ERA of 3.91 and FIP of 3.41, as Walker is pitching better than his results indicate.  The splits for Walker have a BABIP phenomenon as well in that left-handers are putting up a .344 BABIP while righties are putting up a .288 BABIP. So, the shocking rise in BAA for lefties is a bit of an anomaly this early in the season.

Let’s talk more about how Jered Weaver is bad. Weaver is allowing a .333 batting average to all batters in spacious Petco Field on the year. His FIP at home is a ridiculous 8.81, and his HR/FB% at home is a sky high 30%. Weaver is allowing a 28.6% line drive rate in May, well above his career average.

Fading Weaver here sounds square, but even squares win 40% of the time, and in this case it is ok to take a swing with the public action. Just like in his last start I will be taking all lines available on the other side, with 'over' 4.5 first five innings and 'over' 8 full game paired with Arizona -133 full game and the first 5 inning moneyline on Arizona when it becomes available.

MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks -133Best Line Offered: BetOnline 

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