Fade San Diego As Padres' Rude Awakening Continues vs. Cardinals

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, July 19, 2016 6:01 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 19, 2016 6:01 PM UTC

Much like yesterday, we have a major mismatch on the mound, along with a BUY sign on St. Louis, who has grossly underachieved their OPS numbers. Read on for our MLB Pick.

San Diego Padres (Rea) at St. Louis Cardinals (C. Martinez)
This matchup has played out to St. Louis’ advantage on this field with what is now a 26-10 series advantage. The numbers are in favor of the Cardinals again tonight with an OPS batting advantage of .780 to .709 and a bullpen advantage of .660 to .745.

As expected, the San Diego 2nd half resurgence was short lived. After sweeping San Fran over the weekend, which had the best record in baseball, the Padres fell flat on their face with a 10-2 loss last night. Despite the euphoria of their weekend success, the long-term message to the team was made clear when they traded starting pitchers, Shields and then Pomeranz, prior to the All-Star Break. There is not much hope in this pitching matchup with Colin Rea toeing the rubber for the Padres. Rea has been sporadic at best this season with a 4.59 ERA. In his last outing vs. Arizona, he lasted just 4 2/3 IP allowing 4 runs and 8 baserunners. His road ERA is now a bloated 5.52. He has faced St. Louis twice, allowing 8 runs in 9 innings.


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At the other end of the spectrum is St. Louis’ starter, Martinez. Suffering from an upper-respiratory infection, Martinez struggled in a trio of May starts, allowing 14 runs in 15 IP. Since that time, however, Martinez has been outstanding. In 8 outings, he has a dominant 1.02 ERA. His last start saw Martinez allow just 1 run in 5 IP vs. Milwaukee while authoring 11 Ks. In yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that the BUY sign was still in effect for St. Louis. St. Louis currently has a record of 48-44, trailing the Cubs by 8 games for the NL Central lead and in the thick of the Wild Card race with Miami, the Mets, Pittsburgh and LA Dodgers. Yet, their OPS numbers tell quite a different story. St. Louis is No. 4 in batting with a .780 OPS and No. 5 in relief pitching with a .660 OPS. That means with their best starter Martinez on the mound, they should dominate every phase of tonight’s game against San Diego. There is plenty of room for improvement with a home field where they are 21-28, after posting an MLB-best (home wins) last season.  

We are comfortable laying the runs, knowing that 41 of 48 St. Louis’ wins have come by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on St. Louis again tonight.


Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -1½ -101
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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