Fade Alert! Awful Homer Bailey on Mound for Reds at Dodgers Saturday

Friday, May 11, 2018 12:08 PM UTC

Friday, May. 11, 2018 12:08 PM UTC

If you like winning money, then recent history says you should NOT be backing the Cincinnati Reds behind Homer Bailey on Saturday night at the L.A. Dodgers.

Who is the best pitcher in baseball? I think many would agree that it’s Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw, the three-time Cy Young winner. However, Kershaw isn’t having a typical Kershaw year and he actually has been the worst pitcher to back in the majors this season in terms of money units. While Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who isn’t in the same stratosphere as Kershaw, is No. 1 at Intertops with +$713 money units won on the year, Kershaw is dead last at -$975. That’s because the Dodgers are always heavily favored in Kershaw’s games and the team is just 2-5 in his starts in 2018.

Kershaw is currently on the disabled list with tendinitis in his left bicep, but an MRI showed no structural damage. He’s eligible to return from the DL on May 16 but probably won’t be back on the mound until the end of this month. If Kershaw wasn’t hurt, his turn in the rotation would have been Saturday against the visiting Cincinnati Reds. And that’s a shame because had it been him, we would have had the two worst pitchers in the majors in terms of negative money units on the season.

Cincinnati starts veteran right-hander Homer Bailey. The 32-year-old has had a solid career, but it might be time to hang ‘em up. That’s because the Reds have lost all eight of Bailey’s starts this season, giving him a -$805 money units total. Bailey has had two good starts in his eight, but the Reds didn’t give him any run support in those. Overall, Bailey is 0-5 with a 5.61 ERA. Batters are hitting .266 off him, and he has surrendered a whopping 11 homers in 43.1 innings.

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Homer Bailey recognizes he didn't bring his best stuff against the Mets but vows to continue fixing the mechanical issues. pic.twitter.com/1faEfk7TiX

— FOX Sports Ohio (@FOXSportsOH) May 8, 2018

Bailey has allowed at least two homers in four straight starts and his numbers have gotten progressively worse in them. On April 21 in St. Louis, he went 5.2 innings and allowed three earned. Five days later vs. Atlanta, Bailey lasted five innings and allowed four earned. On May 1 vs. Milwaukee, another five-inning start and five earned. Then on Monday vs. the Mets, Bailey lasted a season-low four innings and was tagged for a season-high six earned and season-high three homers.

Monday's game vs. the Mets marked the 200th career start for Bailey, making him only the 25th pitcher in franchise history to reach that milestone. That’s nice, but how much longer can the Reds keep trotting him out there? Although, the terrible team really has nothing to play for already. Bailey is 4-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Dodgers.

The Dodgers will be sizable Intertops betting favorites even though they aren’t exactly starting one of their best pitchers in Ross Stripling (0-1, 1.93), who is filling in for Kershaw. Stripling, usually a reliever, made an emergency start on Sunday vs. San Diego in Mexico and threw four shutout innings in a no-decision. That was Stripling’s second start this year in 13 appearances and the Dodgers have lost them both as sizable favorites, giving Stripling a money units total of -$272 on the season. In addition to starting twice, Stripling has entered games in the third, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, and 10th innings, and he's only been scored on twice.

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