Expert Capper Favors Yankees (Eovaldi) Over Orioles (Tillman) for Thursday's MLB Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, May 7, 2015 2:31 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 7, 2015 2:31 PM UTC

The Baltimore Orioles travel to meet the NY Yankees in this series opener. The Yankees didn't do too well against the Blue Jays even though they've been on a roll for their previous series. It looks like the Yankees will be our top MLB pick for this matchup tonight. 

Baltimore Orioles (Tillman) vs. NY Yankees (Eovaldi) (-130) 7:05 ET
The Baltimore Orioles travel across borough following their 2-game, early week set vs. the Mets. That did not go well for the Birds, as they lost a 3-2 decision on Tuesday followed by a 5-1 loss to the Mets last night. Now, they take on a Yankees team, who comes off a 3-game set in Toronto.  They lost the 3rd game of that series last night (5-1), when Buehrle broke his 0-12 streak against the Yankees.  Now, the Bronx Bombers return home to host Baltimore for this 4-game set.  Earlier this season, Baltimore took 2 of 3 from the Yankees on April 13-15th.  

Baltimore has been a streaky team this season. Following a 5-game losing streak ending April 24th, the Birds went on a 5-1 run through May 3rd. The consecutive losses to the Mets may yet signal another downturn for Baltimore fortunes, so keep this in mind when looking at the MLB odds. It is certainly not a positive that they are sending Tillman to the mound.  On his behalf, Tillman may have pitched a return to form game in his previous outing.  He worked 7 innings, allowing just 2 runs with 7Ks in a 2-0 win vs. TBay.  In addition, last year in 4 starts against the Yankees, he posted a 1.98 ERA.  Before that, however, in 6 starts from this mound, Tillman had a 9.62 ERA.  With a YTD mark of 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA, he could be in hot water again on this field tonight.  

The NY Yankees are one of 6 teams who have a .735 or greater OPS on offense and a pitching staff that allows a less than .670 OPS.  These teams, including Kansas City, St. Louis, Houston, the LA Dodgers, Detroit and these Yankees were 106-53 entering play on Wednesday.  In an endorsement for parity in MLB, all 6 of these teams were losers yesterday! That includes these Yankees, who fell 5-1 at Toronto.  Yet, NY remains on a solid 14-5 run as they continue to put together all aspects of their game.  That includes winning all 3 starts by tonight's starter, Eovaldi.  In his most recent start, Eovaldi worked 6 2/3 IP, allowing just 2 runs in a 4-2 victory vs. Boston.  His 3.67 K/BB ratio is among the best in baseball.  That is clearly a positive indicator that his pitches are finding the plate.  But before you take the rubber band off for this play, note that opposing hitters are batting .328 against him which is not a positive indicator.  

Even with that potential red flag for Eovaldi, I like this pitching matchup that favors the Yankees. With Baltimore on another potential downer, let's step in at this short home price and add to your MLB picks the Yankees off a loss, a role in which they are 6-3 for the season.

NBA Picks: take NY Yankees at Bookmaker.

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