Experienced Veterans Not to Be Trusted: Pelfrey-Leake Will Push Twins vs. Reds Over Total Runs

Charles Stark

Monday, June 29, 2015 11:03 AM GMT

Monday, Jun. 29, 2015 11:03 AM GMT

There's a pretty interesting total line when the Twins visit the Reds. Even with two veteran pictures on the mound and middle tiered offenses I'm still going to back over the total with my MLB picks

Odds
MLB odds makers have opened up this game at a total of 7.5 with about -120 juice. At some places the total is at 8 with no juice at +100. For me my play is over 8 at +100, but if you have to pay a little bit of juice at 7.5 I think it is still a solid play as well. Again though, I am taking over the total of 8 on this game.

 

Pitching Matchup
Mike Pelfrey takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins and comes in with a really solid 3.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. It seems like he has been rejuvenated in Minnesota because his career ERA is 4.45 with a WHIP of 1.47. Overall he has just been solid this season, and at home he has pitched very well. On the road though is a different story, and his ERA jumps to 4.46 with batters hitting .311 against him. For the Reds Mike Leake takes the hill with a 3.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. In the month of June he has been very solid with only a 2.45 ERA. In those five games though he faced some of the worst hitting teams in the league in the Phillies twice, ranked last in runs scored in the league, the Marlins ranked 24th, and the Pirates ranked 22nd.  The other team was the Cubs ranked 20th, but today he will face the Twins who are ranked 15th, so we should see a little different story.

Must Read: MLB Odds: Which Divisions are Favored to Win World Series

Overall Hitting
Both the Twins and the Reds are middle tiered teams offensively in the league. As mentioned, the Twins rank 15th in the league in runs scored per game while the Reds ranked 18th. As we look at the stats these teams are very comparable in most offensive categories. The Twins are ranked 18th in batting average at .249 and the Reds 19th at .248. In hits per game the Reds rank 17th and the Twins 22nd. Although these teams are not two of the best hitting teams in the league I like them to score quite a few runs today against this pitching matchup.

Both Pelfrey and Leake have been around the majors for a while. And while they are both veteran pitchers I think they are both going to struggle a little bit today on the mound. Both the Twins and the Reds have enough of an offense to get on the bases and score some runs, back the over with confidence.

MLB Pick: Over at BetOnline

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