MLB have priced Baltimore as underdogs tonight despite their recent dominance over Boston with a series-opening victory Tuesday night. We share two ways to profit with baseball picks.
O's-Sox Wednesday Betting Odds
In early action the best price we could find on Boston and Clay Buchholz was the -140 offered at BetDSI, while Baltimore and Bud Norris were getting +135 at WagerWeb. And most books were listing the total on tonight's game at 8.5 runs.
Baltimore took Game 1 of this series Tuesday night 6-4, scoring four runs in the second inning, then later getting four solid innings from the bullpen. The Orioles have won three games in a row, and are 12-3 over their last 15 games.
At 37-33 the O's are 2.5 games out of first place in the AL East, and just a half-game off the pace in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.
Baltimore has also played eight OVERS in its last 12 games, as the bats have come alive.
Coming into this week Boston had won two series in a row, and four of its previous six games. Still, at 31-41 the Red Sox own the worst record in the American League.
The Orioles lead this season series eight games to three, with six wins in a row.
Buchholz (4-6, 3.87) is eight-for-14 on quality starts this season. Last Thursday he held Atlanta to two unearned runs through seven innings, although in his previous two starts he had allowed eight runs through 10 2/3 innings. For the season Buchholz has allowed 89 hits through 86 innings; Boston is just 5-9 in Buchholz' starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 7-4 margin.
Since the beginning of last season Buchholz has started twice against Baltimore, allowing eight runs and 18 hits through just 8 1/3 innings; the Sox lost both those games.
Norris (2-5, 7.57) is just two-for-nine on quality starts this season, one-for-three since returning from a stint on the DL. Last Thursday he held Philadelphia to two runs through six innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed seven runs through 16 2/3 innings. On the season Norris has allowed more hits, 55, than innings pitched, 44; Baltimore is 4-5 in Norris' starts, with the OVERS going 6-2.
Since the beginning of last season Norris has started three times against Boston, allowing seven runs through 21 innings; the Orioles won two of those three games.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
Boston ranks fourth in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .330 team OBP, while Baltimore ranks 15th against righties with a .319 OBP.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Fenway Park this season are 18-16 on the UNDERS, averaging 9.2 runs per.
Baltimore OF Adam Jones has missed recent action with a sore shoulder, but his replacement, David Lough, hit a key three-run homer Tuesday night. Jones will probably miss the rest of this series.
O's-Sox Free Picks
Baltimore owns the upper hand in this rivalry at the moment, and is listed at an underdog price. We like the value with the Orioles. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 6-3 or 5-4, so we're thinking OVER.
MLB Picks: Baltimore +135 at WagerWeb and OVER 8.5 runs (+105) at 5Dimes