Expect Slugfest in Philadelphia: Bet Mets-Phillies Series Finale 'Over'

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, August 27, 2015 2:42 PM GMT

MLB handicapper shares his top total selection on Thursday’s card. Don’t make a move on tonight’s Mets/Phillies game without reading this betting preview article which concludes with his pick.

Mets and Phillies Series Finale
The Phillies and Mets play their finale of a four game series today in Philadelphia. The first pitch is slated for 7:05 PM ET. These teams have seen each of the first three go over the total, and there was a combined average of 15.7 runs scored per game. As a matter of fact, since 2013, the Mets are 17-5-3 over the total during twenty-five games played at Philadelphia

 

Starting Pitchers
The Mets Jonathan Niese has gone 4-2 over the total during his previous six starts, and posted a lofty 5.24 ERA during that time frame. The Mets southpaw hurler was impressive in his only two starts of the season against Philadelphia. However, the last of those outings came way back in the second week of May.

The Phillies Aaron Harang has allowed 4 earned runs or more in nine of his last eleven starts, and pitched beyond the sixth inning just one time over that stretch. Harang has been in horrible form during his previous four starts, compiling a huge 8.18 ERA and 2.23 WHIP in those outings. Similar to his pitching adversary today, Harang has made two very strong starts versus the Mets in 2015. Although, the last of which came on May 9th. Things have been in rapid decline for the Phillies veteran right-hander since that time.

 

Both Teams playing on High Side of the Number
The Mets are 16-6 over the total during their previous twenty-two games, and that includes 9-1 in their last ten. They’ve averaged 9.7 runs per game, compiled a sizzling .338 team batting average, and have an off the charts 1.041 OPS in their last seven contests.

Philadelphia has averaged a very respectable 5.1 runs per game, and had a stellar .456 team slugging percentage over their previous seven outings. The Phillies have seen seven of their last nine games go over the total. According to current MLB betting odds, Philadelphia is a +145 money line underdog at Bovada on Thursday. They’ve gone 19-8 over the total at home this season as a money line underdog of +125 or more.

 

MLB Totals Super Betting Angle

  • Philadelphia is averaging 3.8 runs per game in 2015.
  • The Phillies bullpen has a 3.78 ERA this year.
  • Mets starter Jonathan Niese has a 3.80 ERA in twenty-four starts this season.

Any National League team (Phillies) with a total of 8.5 to 10.0, averaging 3.8 or less runs per game, and possesses a bullpen ERA of 3.75 to 4.50, facing a starting pitcher (Niese) with an ERA of 3.70 to 4.20, resulted in those games going 35-13 (72.9%) over the total since 1997.

MLB Pick: Play on the Mets and Phillies Over 8.5 (-114) at Pinnacle.