Expect Low Scoring Affair for Phillies vs. Nationals Series Finale

Darin Zank

Sunday, August 3, 2014 1:19 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 3, 2014 1:19 PM UTC

Washington squeaked out a victory Saturday, 11-0, to earn a shot a splitting this four-game series. We haven't had much luck with our free MLB picks on this series, but perhaps we can come up with something worth-while for Sunday's series finale (1:35 pm ET). 

Sunday's Betting Odds
As of early Sunday AM most shops were chalking Washington with Stephen Strasburg at around -150 over Philly and Cole Hamels, with the total proffered at 6.5 runs. The Nats could also be found at around +160 giving the run and a half on the run line.

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Saturday Re-Hash
Washington scored once in the first Saturday night, four times in the second, once in the third and five times in the fourth, then settled in for an 11-0 victory. The Nats won as -185 post-time favorites, and the game, to our chagrin, played 'over' its total of 7.5 runs.

We backed the 'under' on Saturday's game for our free MLB pick, but only got help from one side of the lineup card.


Sunday's Starters
Strasburg (7-9, 3.55) is 14/23 on quality starts, but only one for his last four. Tuesday he held Miami to one run through seven innings, but over his three starts previous to that he allowed 10 runs through 18 innings.

On the season Strasburg has allowed 147 hits in 144 innings, while posting a wonderful K/BB ratio of 167/32. Still, the Nats are only 11-12 in Strasburg's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'overs' by a 14-7 margin, mostly because the totals on his games have been posted so low.

Strasburg has started three times already this season against Philly, giving up nine runs – just four earned – through 18 2/3 innings; Washington won all three of those games.

Hamels (6-5, 2.55) has been a tough old dog this year, going 15/19 on quality starts, working on a string of five in a row. Last Tuesday he held the Mets scoreless through eight innings, walking none while whiffing eight, and over his last five starts he's given up just six ER through 36 2/3 innings.

On the season trade-bait Hamels has limited foes to 108 hits in 130 innings, walked 39 and struck out 133. Philly, a team that's 13 games under .500 overall, is 9-10 in games Hamels has started.

Since the beginning of last season Hamels has started five times against the Nationals, giving up 11 ER and 26 hits through 34 1/3 innings; the Phillies went 3-2 in those five games.

Check Out Ron Patricks MLB Pick for the Yankees vs. Red Sox Series Finale!

Free Pick for Sunday
We got burned on the 'under' on Saturdays' game, but with these two starters going, we can't help but think Sunday's game will grind into a low-scoring affair. So we'll go with the 'under' 6.5 runs, at the +102 offered at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick on this series finale.

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