Expect High Performance From Price & Lock Red Sox As Your MLB Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, July 5, 2016 12:54 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 5, 2016 12:54 PM UTC

Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox continue their 3-game early week set. Boston won the first game, last night, by a score of 12-5, as they continue their bounce back from a weekend embarrassment.  

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox (-1 ½ R/+115) 
We look to follow that momentum with a Boston team with a pitching mismatch in our favor and with run line support out of an 80% winning situation. 

My OPS SELL sign flashed on the Rangers, after their 19-4 run (over 80% in 20+ games) flashed on the Rangers.  They have now gone 1-5 in games against the Yankees, Minnesota and Boston. No surprise that they continue to spiral downward as, despite a 52-32 record (3rd best in baseball), their OPS batting is 11th at .751, their overall pitching is 16th with a .742 OPS and their bullpen is 28th with a .799 OPS.  Hardly the numbers to support the 3rd best record in baseball!  Red Sox have huge advantages at the plate with a .848 home OPS and .697 relief OPS, as well as an edge in starting pitchers.  

Griffin takes the mound tonight for the Rangers, as he continues to work his way into the rotation after suffering shoulder stiffness that kept him out of action for 6 weeks.  His work is badly needed by the Rangers, as 3 key starters, Lewis (back), Darvish (shoulder) and Holland (shoulder) remain out of the lineup.  In Griffins’ first start back from the DL, he faced Boston on June 25th, allowing 2 runs and 4 hits in 4 1/3 IP.  With his workload continuing to be limited, I note that it presses the Rangers’ bullpen into action which, as noted above, is 28th in MLB with a .799 OPS.  

The Red Sox were embarrassed on Saturday night with a 21-2 loss to the bottom-feeding Angels, who are on a 2-12 slide (go figure)!  Since that time, however, Boston has responded with wins by combined scores of 22-10 in which they have pounded out 37 hits.  With the top batting OPS in MLB at .826 and a significantly better bullpen with a .697 OPS, that leaves the outcome of this game in the hands of starting pitcher, David Price.  Price began the season well below expectations of his huge contract. When at last he returned to form, he pitched 8 consecutive quality starts.  But he has been openly self-critical of his last 2 performances, including at Tampa Bay on Wednesday, where he lost to the Rays (currently on a 3-16 slide), allowing 4 runs and 9 hits, despite 10 strikeouts.  With plenty of motivation, I expect a huge performance from Price tonight!  

We lay the runs, knowing that 36 of 45 Boston wins (80%), including 20 of 26 on this field, have been by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Boston Red Sox tonight.

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Free MLB Picks: Red Sox -182
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


More Expert Insight Here: Pitching Change Suggest A Bet on Pirates-Cardinals Total

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