Evident Pitching Mismatch Supports Run-Line Picks Backing Orioles vs. Marlins

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, May 22, 2015 2:59 PM GMT

The Baltimore Orioles visit the Miami Marlins to meet in the first of a 3-game series at Marlins Park. The Orioles are following a home win vs. Seattle to make them winners of 3 of 4 recent games in which they have totaled 18 runs, and tonight we're backing them with our MLB picks.

Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez) (-1 ½ R/+135) vs. Miami Marlins (Alvarez) 7:10 ET
The Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins meet in the first of a 3-game series at Marlins Park. Baltimore flies to Miami, following a home win vs. Seattle to make them winners of 3 of 4 recent games in which they have totaled 18 runs. Consider it a buy sign for a team who started the month 5-9.  In those 14 games, Baltimore plated just 41 runs (less than 3 RPG) and tonight they're favored by the MLB odds makers.  

Unlike Baltimore, who appears to have turned the corner from their offensive doldrums, Miami is still mired in a recent slump. This has been a streaky Marlins team, who began the year 3-11 prior to a 9-1 surge, which has been followed by a 4-12 record.  That includes 1-8 recently in which they have been outscored 59-28.  They begin the 9th game of this home stand with a 0-8 record under new manager, Dan Jennings.  On the mound for Miami will be Alvarez, who was like “money in the bank” in this park last year.  In 14 starts, Miami went 12-2, where Alvarez had a 1.60 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.  But, oh what a difference a year makes!  Alvarez has made all 3 starts from this mound this season, posting a record of 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA.  In doing so, he has worked 17 1/3 IP, allowing 12 runs on 22 hits with only 7 Ks. In his most recent start off the DL, Alvarez worked 5 1/3 IP, allowing 6 runs and 9 hits in a 6-0 loss to Atlanta.

On the opposing bench is a reborn, Ubaldo Jimenez.  He has an ERA of 2.43, 1.01 WHIP, .204 BAA and .547 OPS. In his last 2 starts, Jimenez has worked 14 IP, allowing 4 runs with a 15/2 K/BB. The start is reminiscent of when he pitched for Colorado, some 5 years ago.  

With the clear mismatch on the mound and Miami still mired in their 8-game slump on this field, for our MLB picks we are eager to back a Baltimore team who at last seems to be putting the bat on the ball.  Run line players take note, 11 of 14 Miami home losses have come by 2 or more runs, while the last 10 Baltimore wins have all come by 10 runs.

MLB Pick: Take Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (R./+135) at Bookmaker

We have three spectacular MLB picks for tonight so you can max out your profit!